The week ahead: Trump tariffs kick in

From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.

Politics

ANC’s NEC meeting

The ANC’s four-day meeting of the national executive committee (NEC) wraps up today. The meeting has been blighted by logistical issues and was moved from Ormonde to Germiston on Saturday after complaints by NEC members. Over the weekend, the NEC deliberated on the state of the economy, the future of the government of national unity, and the SACP seeking to contest elections independently of the ANC.

Trump tariffs kick in on August 7

The 30% Trump tariffs on key exports such as South African citrus and automotive products will kick in on Thursday. The government has indicated it continues to push for a trade deal with the US, but is resigned to the new punitive tariffs taking effect. Trump’s tariffs have already disrupted South Africa’s car exports to the US, and the South African Reserve Bank has predicted huge job losses in the automotive and agricultural sectors.

Last Friday, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that a “package” to support companies particularly affected by the tariffs is being finalised. An “export support desk” will also be established to support exporters and advise on alternative markets.

By-election in Motherwell, Nelson Mandela Bay Metro

The ANC defends its control of ward 23 in the Nelson Mandela Bay metro in a by-election on Wednesday. The ward is a relatively safe seat for the party, which secured 76.3% of the vote there in the 2021 local government election. The next biggest party was the EFF, with 12.8% of the vote, which grew to about 20% in the 2024 provincial vote.

The DA, which won 4.5% of the vote in 2021, again opted out of contesting a by-election in this part of the metro. The ANC will be contesting Azapo, the EFF and MK. Key to watch on Wednesday will be whether MK can replicate its July 2 performance in ward 57, where it secured 16% of the vote, and whether it will be at the expense of the ANC or the EFF.

National Women’s Day

The country will celebrate National Women’s Day on Saturday. The day commemorates the march to the Union Buildings by 20,000 women on August 9 1956 to protest against the pass laws being enforced by the Apartheid government.

Economics

S&P Global PMI

The S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for July will be released on Tuesday morning. The PMI fell to 50.1 in June from 50.8 in May, indicating softer growth in private sector activity driven by declines in output and new orders. The PMI for July could dip below 50 into contractionary territory, bolstering the Reserve Bank’s decision last week to cut interest rates.

Stats SA utilisation of production capacity

Stats SA will release its quarterly report on the utilisation of production capacity in the manufacturing sector on Thursday. The report measures how busy the various manufacturing subsectors were in the second quarter of 2025. The previous report revealed a four-year low in capacity utilisation, with falling demand in the motor vehicle industry of particular concern ahead of the new tariffs out of the US.

Foreign exchange reserves

Thursday will see an update on South Africa’s foreign exchange reserves as of July. June’s numbers reflected that reserves had risen to a record high of $68.415bn from $68.116bn the previous month.

For July, gross reserves are forecast to increase marginally to $68.6bn, supported by a 0.3% month-on-month boost in forex reserves and a 1.1% boost to gold reserves, the market for which continues to benefit from its safe-haven status.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.