It’s not tariffs killing South Africa, it’s the jobs drought

South Africa’s jobs crisis deepened in the second quarter of 2025, but it is the inability to do anything to reverse this trajectory that has been the most shocking aspect of the numbers.

According to Stats SA, the official unemployment rate crept up to 33.2% from 32.9% in the first three months of the year, translating to about 140,000 more jobless people, now totalling roughly 8.4-million.

Looked at from the flip side, only 19,000 more people found work, bringing total employment to 16.8-million. The expanded unemployment rate, which includes discouraged job seekers, edged slightly lower from 43.1% to 42.9% – a meagre consolation given the magnitude of the number.

If hot air could grow jobs, South Africa would be booming. Instead, the economy has expanded by an average of 0.7% over the past decade, according to World Bank data, seriously lagging the global average of about 3%.

And, despite the words “structural reforms” – a code for all the changes needed to make government and its economic levers work efficiently, or at all – being thrown around for decades, nothing fundamental has been revamped.

Now, President Cyril Ramaphosa wants everyone to gather round once again and discuss the woes bedevilling our economy in his National Dialogue. 

Sorry to break it to you, bud, but it’s you, and your party of thieves, the ANC’s outdated policies and ideologies, its dodgy human-rights-violating friends, incompetent cadres put in positions to plunder rather than resource the institutions they lead, and your inability to do anything other than spew promises that never get delivered on.

Never mind the ineffectual approach of our opposition parties, including the DA, whose arrogance matches the bullheadedness of the ANC. More than a year on, and the only major success the government of national unity has achieved is not falling apart – as Zapiro of the Daily Maverick so aptly depicted in a recent cartoon.

Talk about tariffs

So, let’s be clear: this isn’t only about tariffs, but structural underperformance. As Azar Jammine, the director and chief economist of Econometrix, puts it: “In an economy that is barely growing, you are not going to see a big reduction in the unemployment rate.”

Yet everyone is talking tariffs. Imposed on less than 3% of South Africa’s total exports – with key minerals comprising over half of exports to the US – the potential damage to employment is marginal.

Yes, some jobs in motor vehicles, citrus, macadamia nuts and wine may be at risk, as Jammine notes. But motor vehicle exports to the US have already plunged by more than 80% since April last year – before tariffs landed. Losing another chunk now means the new dent is more minor in context.

That’s not to say the tariff dispute with the US can be ignored. The jobs data already flags some risks: agriculture shed 24,000 workers in the quarter. Harsh tariffs could see a marked increase in agricultural job losses, Investec warns.

There’s another red flag: while formal sector employment rose by 34,000, informal jobs – the lifeblood of many households – fell by 19,000.

All caused by an essentially comatose economy.

And what are we doing about it? Talking about talking.

As Jammine dryly summarises, the National Dialogue is “absolutely useless” because it excludes both camps in the ideological divide: the job-creators and the job-displacers. Expect another two-day gabfest full of righteous handwringing and no tangible solutions.

The government-led forum to bring political parties, civil society, business and labour together to discuss solutions to the country’s economic, social and governance challenges has already seen many of those targeted withdraw from the process. The DA and several prominent legacy foundations including those of Steve Biko, Thabo Mbeki, Albert Luthuli, Desmond and Leah Tutu, FW de Klerk, and Oliver and Adelaide Tambo, have pulled out.

Want jobs? Grow the economy – not through bluster or slogans, but through structural reform, investment in infrastructure, and private sector confidence. The irony? We’ve run deficits, tinkered with VAT, not tinkered with VAT, and watched growth stall – yet we expect unemployment to shrink. That’s akin to expecting rain during a drought while sitting indoors.

Jammine’s words bear repeating: “We haven’t lost a hell of a lot of jobs … the overall level of employment is basically unchanged. The problem is that the population keeps growing, so the unemployment rate rises.”

The fatal truth: without economic momentum, no amount of dialogue in boardrooms, studios, talk shops or the Union Buildings will reverse it. Perhaps it’s time Ramaphosa starts talking from the end that doesn’t blow so much hot air.

_{Top image: Gallo Images/Luba Lesolle.}