The week ahead: De Lille in the hot seat

From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.

Politics

G20 task force on global wealth inequality

On Tuesday, work will begin for the G20 task force on global wealth inequality, chaired by Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and featuring Winnie Byanyima and Jayati Ghosh. The task force will craft proposals on sovereign debt and inequality for the G20 leaders’ summit in November, one of the final milestones of South Africa’s one-year presidency, which concludes at the end of the year.

With just under three months left, South Africa is under pressure to deliver tangible outcomes to cement its leadership legacy. That task is complicated by rising tensions with the US, where Donald Trump’s administration has taken an increasingly combative stance on trade, climate and multilateral reform. For South Africa, the challenge is to push through a Global South-driven agenda while navigating G20 divisions.

Parliament committee on tourism governance

Also on Tuesday, parliament’s portfolio committee on tourism will hold a special oversight hearing into the ongoing saga at SA Tourism. Minister Patricia de Lille, along with members of the now-dissolved SA Tourism board, will be questioned on several critical issues: the suspension of the CEO, the controversial resignation of the board chair, and the minister’s decision to dissolve the board entirely. The hearing will also review the findings of a forensic investigation, reportedly triggered by irregularities in SA Tourism’s procurement and governance processes.

Industry stakeholders have criticised the disruption as damaging to sector confidence, particularly in the run-up to South Africa’s peak travel season. Industry groups and opposition have accused the ministry of overreach, while the minister insists her decisions were based on legal advice and were necessary to restore credibility.

By-elections: Limpopo, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape

On Wednesday, the ANC will defend Ward 4 in Emalahleni, Eastern Cape and Ward 34 in Fetakgomo Tubatse, Limpopo. Ward 4 in Siyancuma, Northern Cape will also be contested, a seat previously held by an independent.

Both ANC seats are relatively safe. In 2021, the party won 84.99% of the vote in Emalahleni, with the EFF the next biggest party at 7.63%. Only the PAC will be contesting the ANC in this ward. In Fetakgomo Tubatse, the ANC won 75.6% of the vote in 2021, with the EFF the next biggest party at 18.72%. The EFF will be fielding a candidate in this ward on Wednesday, as will the SACP.

In Siyancuma, the by-election is being contested by the ANC, DA, EFF and PA. In 2021, an independent won the ward with 39.31% of the vote. The DA won 34.24%, the ANC won 15.84% and the EFF, 3.20%. The PA did not contest.

Economics

Gross and net reserves

On Friday at 8am, focus turns to the South African Reserve Bank’s release of gross and net foreign exchange reserves for August. Gross reserves are likely to have increased slightly, from $69.2bn in July to $69.7bn, supported by a 0.3% month-on-month rise in foreign exchange holdings. The modest uptick suggests external balances remain relatively stable despite continued global volatility.

In rand terms, reserves are expected to decline by about 1.5% month on month, reflecting the currency’s ~2% appreciation against the US dollar in August. Import cover is expected to hold at about 10 months, while the international liquidity position should edge up from $65.1bn to $65.2bn, indicating that South Africa has a solid cushion to handle its immediate external payments.

Gold valuation lifts reserve composition

Also due on Friday morning, gold reserves are expected to post a 2.3% month-on-month increase, driven almost entirely by valuation gains. The rise follows a rally in global gold prices during August, as investors continued to shift into the safe-haven asset amid seemingly ever-present geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker dollar.

Though South Africa’s physical gold holdings remain largely unchanged, the value boost will support overall reserve performance, especially in the context of slightly subdued new foreign capital coming into South Africa. This change in value will add resilience, helping offset some of the pressure from currency volatility, which is set to continue into the fourth quarter.

Vehicle sales

South Africa’s new vehicle sales for August, set to be released on Friday, are likely to show a 13.9% year-on-year increase, building on July’s 15.6% expansion. The uptick reflects improving financial conditions, including interest rate cuts, lower debt-service costs, and stable pricing across vehicle categories. Consumer demand for these types of goods appears to be recovering, which could give a potential tailwind for the broader manufacturing and retail sectors.

The industry as a whole, however, is undergoing both challenges and changes. Ford Motor Company has announced plans to cut more than 470 jobs at its Pretoria and Eastern Cape plants, citing global cost pressures. With US tariffs already eroding export competitiveness, the sector’s rebound remains at risk of being undermined by international uncertainty and foreign policy weakness. At the same time, imports from India and China are reshaping the local market, now accounting for more than a third of all sales.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls. 

_{Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.}