From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.
Politics
Mashatile’s bodyguards back in court
Deputy President Paul Mashatile’s bodyguards are due back in court on Thursday. Eight members of Mashatile’s VIP protection unit face charges of assault, malicious damage to property, pointing of a firearm, contravening the Road Traffic Act, reckless and negligent driving, and defeating the ends of justice.
Parliament to assess G20 readiness
On Tuesday, the portfolio committee on international relations and co-operation will host a colloquium to discuss South Africa’s preparedness for the G20 summit in November. Planning is ramping up and the presidency is close to finalising the summit’s themes, likely centred around global financial reform, debt relief for developing countries and climate finance.
Momentum, however, has been clouded by US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will not attend the event. The US will instead be represented by its vice-president, JD Vance, in a snub that reflects months of escalating tensions between the two countries and South Africa’s uphill struggle to host a successful summit while navigating a tricky US relationship.
By-Elections in Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng and Limpopo
The ANC will defend four wards on Wednesday. In Ward 1, Kou-Kamma, Eastern Cape, the party will contest against the DA and PA. This is the second by-election in the past year in the ward. In 2021, the ANC won 53% of the vote to the DA’s 37.8% and the PA’s 5.1%. In the by-election in August 2024, the ANC won the ward with a reduced 45.8%. The PA surged to 33% in last year’s by-election and will be hoping to take the win this time around.
In Ward 7, Nala, Free State, the ANC will be contesting against the EFF and the Nala Community Forum (NCF). In 2021, the ANC won 54.3% to the EFF’s 24.8% and the NCF’s 16.5%.
In Ward 130 in the City of Joburg (Naledi, Soweto), the ANC will be facing off against six parties including the EFF, MK and ActionSA. The DA is not contesting the ward. The ANC won 56.2% of the vote in 2021. ActionSA placed second with 18.9%. In the 2024 provincial election the ANC fell to 42.7%, with MK at 25%, the EFF at 11.3% and ActionSA polling at 7.6%.
In Ward 5, Bela-Bela, Limpopo, the ANC will contest the EFF, MK and the Better Residents Association. The ANC won 71.4% of the vote in 2021 with the EFF second at 11%. The party fell to 64% in the 2024 provincial election with the EFF trailing at 20%.
GovTech 2025 kicks off
The GovTech 2025 conference kicks off in Durban on Monday, running to Wednesday. It brings together government and big tech players to talk digital transformation. While billed as a technology event, there are some political undertones. Pretoria is under pressure to prove it can deliver clean, transparent governance at home, as it pushes for reform of global financial institutions at the G20.
With Microsoft on board as a sponsor, and AI and data sovereignty on the agenda, the event serves as a pitch to international partners: South Africa aims to establish itself as a credible digital player. Critics, however, have warned that flashy tech showcases won’t fix delivery failures, a tension that may hang over the week’s proceedings.
Economics
Second quarter GDP release
South Africa’s second quarter GDP numbers land on Tuesday at 11.30am, with expectations of a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion, a welcome step up from just 0.1% in Q1. The rebound should be broad-based: mining and manufacturing are recovering from a weak start to the year thanks to firmer local demand, improved operating conditions and some resilience in global markets. Services are also likely to contribute, with consumer spending showing signs of life. The drag is agriculture, where foot-and-mouth disease in livestock has offset gains in crops and horticulture.
Investors will be scanning the data for signs that the economy is edging out of stagnation, though power cuts, weak logistics and the cloud of US trade tensions remind everyone that growth momentum remains fragile.
Second quarter current account
Thursday morning’s release will shift attention to the current account, where analysts expect the deficit to narrow to 0.3% of GDP, from 0.5% in Q1. A bigger trade surplus explains the improvement, as exports fell at a slower pace than imports. On the surface, it’s good news for South Africa’s external position, especially with the rand holding steady.
However, the detail may be less flattering: the non-trade deficit has likely widened, with services and income payments outpacing receipts. For markets, the release will be less about the headline figure than about whether the balance looks sustainable in the face of softer Chinese demand, volatile commodities and rising protectionism abroad. The data will help set the tone for investor sentiment as we head into the year-end.
July production data
On Thursday, a fresh batch of production figures will offer a reality check on the state of South Africa’s economy. At 11.30am, mining output is expected to show about 2.6% year-on-year growth, lifted by higher gold and platinum prices and a low base in Q1. But at 1pm, the manufacturing readout is set to paint a different picture: output is forecast at just 0.1% year on year, flat month on month, as the steel and basic metals industries continue to struggle under high costs and weak demand.
The split between a recovering mining sector and a stagnant manufacturing base shows how uneven South Africa’s industrial landscape remains. For policymakers, the numbers are a reminder that South Africa still leans heavily on commodities, while the broader industrial economy struggles to gain momentum.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.
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