From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.
Politics
Scopa inquiry into Road Accident Fund
Parliament reconvenes this week after a constituency period. Taking centre stage among the committee meetings will be the standing committee on public accounts (Scopa) oversight inquiry into the Road Accident Fund (RAF), which starts on Tuesday morning. The inquiry will look into “allegations of maladministration, financial mismanagement, wasteful and reckless expenditure, and related financial misconduct at the RAF”. This follows Scopa’s challenges in obtaining “truthful and complete information” from the RAF board and executive management.
Mashatile visits Senegal
Deputy President Paul Mashatile will attend the Invest in Senegal Forum this week. While in Dakar, Mashatile will meet with Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, “with the aim of further strengthening the existing bilateral, political and economic relations between South Africa and Senegal”.
G20 meetings
As South Africa’s G20 presidency enters its penultimate month, G20 meetings this week will include: the fifth finance and central bank deputies meeting; the fourth energy transitions working group meeting; and the fourth trade and investment working group meeting. Delegates are expected to narrow text on financing, grid decarbonisation and World Trade Organisation reform ahead of ministerial sign-off.
SAPS to send investigators to Paris
The police will send a team of five investigators to Paris to help with the probe into the death of Nathi Mthethwa, who was found dead at a Paris hotel last Tuesday. Initial investigations point to suicide, though French authorities will not release the body for repatriation until their investigation is concluded.
Mkhwanazi on the stand
Public hearings in the high-stakes parliamentary inquiry into alleged political interference and institutional decay within the South African Police Service get under way on Tuesday, with KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner lieutenant-general Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi first in the witness chair. He’s expected to build on July’s allegations of meddling in prosecutions and breakdowns in command and control.
The chair has set a tight sequence: oath and evidence-leader examination on day one, followed by an MP Q&A on day two. Security at the Good Hope Chamber has been reinforced. The hearings land while the Madlanga commission stands down until October 13, sharpening focus on parliament’s role.
Economy
Reserves and rand (September)
At 8am on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank releases September’s reserves data, a clean check on South Africa’s financial buffer. Gross reserves are expected to rise from $70.4bn to about $72.6bn, helped by a strong mark-to-market lift in gold holdings as safe-haven demand in the asset continues to persist. Net forex reserves are expected to slightly firm to roughly $67.5bn, which should keep import cover near eight months, a level that should reassure markets.
Even so, the headline may look softer in rand terms. The rand strengthened more than 2.5% against the dollar over the month, so the rand value of reserves is expected to rise only about 0.5% month on month, even as the dollar total climbs. Still, a firmer currency will help cool imported inflation and trim some input costs. Together, a larger dollar buffer, slightly higher forex reserves and a stronger rand should steady market nerves if power and logistics keep improving.
Manufacturing production (August)
At 1pm on Thursday, August’s manufacturing readout lands, offering a quick health check on the real economy after a stop-start winter. Output is expected to rise about 0.3% year on year, modest but in the right direction. The lift should come from consumer-focused factories, where firmer demand, better electricity availability and small gains in logistics are helping to move goods.
Capacity remains underused, exporters are seeing softer orders abroad and overall momentum is fragile. If Thursday’s number comes in as expected, it signals an industry moving forward rather than stalling, keeping a stronger fourth quarter in play. Traders will scan transport-linked categories for signs that ports and rail are settling. Any upside surprise would bolster the sense that the worst of the industrial slowdown has passed, assuming load-shedding stays muted and festive-season stock-building starts to pick up.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.
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