GNU retreats, by-elections, latest motor vehicle stats and the parliamentary deep dives into police and RAF shenanigans continues: here’s what to expect.
Politics
GNU leaders convene in the Cradle of Humankind
Cyril Ramaphosa concludes a two-day strategic retreat with GNU party Leaders at the Cradle of Humankind in Krugersdorp today (Monday). Ramaphosa convened the meeting in secret with no formal agenda. The meeting has been repeatedly called for by GNU partners of the ANC and comes ahead of the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to be delivered in Parliament later this month.
By-Elections: 5 November 2025
The ANC will be defending two wards on Wednesday in Limpopo and Mpumalanga. In Ward 37, Fetakgomo Tubatse (Limpopo), the ANC will be contesting against six parties including the EFF, MK and the SACP. In the 2021 local government election, the ANC won 57.2% of the vote. The EFF placed second with 28.3% of the vote. The ANC’s share of the 2024 provincial vote was more convincing: the party won 74.4% of the vote to the EFF’s 16.8%.
In Ward 14, Govan Mbeki (Mpumalanga), the ANC will be contesting against an independent, the DA, EFF and MK. In the 2021 election, the ANC won 47.9% of the vote. The DA won 18.5% and the EFF won 18.1%. The 2024 provincial vote saw the ANC dropping to 40.8% and MK storming into second place with 30.8% of the vote. The EFF (14.3%) and the DA (10.0%) could still play a spoiler role on Wednesday.
G20 health ministers meeting
The Ministry of Health will be hosting the final G20 health ministers meeting in Polokwane this week. It will be the seventh and last G20 Health working group meeting and will be deliberating on “actionable recommendations” to take forward into the G20 health declaration.
KZN Cogta MEC to be removed
The Sunday Times reported yesterday that KZN Premier Thami Ntuli will announce that Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs MEC, Thulasizwe Buthelezi, will swap roles with Sport, Arts & Culture MEC Mntomuhle Khawula. This is reportedly in response to an ultimatum by the ANC from two weeks ago relating to allegations from the ANC that the IFP is using its control of the COGTA portfolio to freeze the ANC out of local government in the province.
Ntuli is bowing to ANC pressure as he prepares to defend against an upcoming MK motion of no confidence against him which threatens to collapse the current Government of Provincial Unity.
A busy week for Parliament
It’s another busy week for Parliament with three plenary sessions which include Questions to the President in the National Assembly on Thursday. The National Assembly will on Tuesday be reviewing the recommendations of the Home Affairs Portfolio Committee on filling the three vacancies on the Electoral Commission. The Ad Hoc Committee to investigate the allegations made by Nhlanhla Mkawanzi continues on Tuesday as does SCOPA’s inquiry into the Road Accident Fund (RAF).
Economics
Manufacturing PMI (October)
At 11:00 on Monday, the October Manufacturing PMI lands, with the Standard Bank PMI following at 09:15 on Wednesday. The measure of factory activity is expected to hold in the low-50s, close to September’s 52.2, signalling modest expansion rather than a breakout. Export orders and some inventory rebuild should help, while load-shedding and port delays still cap throughput.
Input costs are easing and logistics have steadied; even so, hiring remains cautious. The Standard Bank print looks set to echo that “slow grind” profile, reinforcing a picture of stabilising into the fourth quarter. The PMI pair suggests output is finding a floor, but momentum still hinges on fixes in power and freight.
Total vehicle sales (October)
At 14:30 on Monday, NAAMSA releases its October vehicle sales, a quick read on what households and fleets are buying. Annual growth looks set to near 18.1% YoY, easing from August’s 24.3% YoY, with volumes hovering in the mid-50k range (August reference 54.7k).
Easier finance after rate cuts, lower debt-service costs and subdued new-car inflation continue to support showroom traffic. Most of the action is likely in passenger replacements and fleet updates, with light commercials holding up as firms sort out logistics. The push will be watched for season specials and incentives: if deals are doing the work more than credit appetite, dealers head into year-end with thinner margins. Even so, another double-digit number would show spending is holding together and should give motor manufacturing and related retail a bit of lift.
Reserves & international liquidity position (October)
At 08:00 on Friday, the SARB publishes October’s reserves pack (gross, net FX and the international liquidity position). Gross reserves will likely rise to around $70.60bn (from $69.74bn), driven chiefly by a circa 5.3% month-on-month valuation gain in gold as safe-haven demand persists. FX reserves are expected to edge up by about 0.2% MoM, putting the ILP near $68.7bn, up from $67.9bn.
Most of the gain comes from gold, so the headline does slightly flatter a modest FX build. Even so, the data show a slightly thicker buffer ahead of a busy political and fiscal week.
Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.
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