The week ahead: Economy by the numbers

After President Cyril Ramaphosa presented a more energetic state of the nation address (Sona) last week than we’ve become accustomed to, it’s time for the post-address debate to kick off. Expect parties in parliament to try and get political mileage out of the event, particularly given tightly contested local government elections later this year.

This, and more, in your political and economic week ahead.

Politics

Sona debate

Parliament will convene to debate Cyril Ramaphosa’s Sona this week, with the president set to respond to the debate on Thursday afternoon.

The ANC’s principal government of national unity partner, the DA, will aim to highlight the achievements of DA ministers while demonstrating that they are fighting against corruption, crime and poor local government service delivery. No doubt, water in local government, especially the Joburg water crisis, will take centre stage in the debate.

The official opposition, MK, will continue its critique of last week’s Sona as failing to adequately address unemployment, poverty and the water crisis. The EFF will similarly hit hard on the water crisis, but also outline how Ramaphosa’s proposals such as the defence force deployment to Gauteng and the Western Cape, as well as the proposed vetting of police officers, show that the South African Police Service is not fit for purpose.

All parties represented in parliament will use the set piece opportunity of the Sona debate to seed messaging ahead of the local government election later this year.

Customary initiation stakeholder dialogue

Co-operative governance and traditional affairs minister Velenkosini Hlabisa will convene a “national customary initiation all‑inclusive stakeholder dialogue” in Gauteng today. This is aimed at strengthening the safety of initiation practices ahead of the winter initiation season. The dialogue will “bring together representatives from government, traditional leadership structures, civil society organisations, and community stakeholders to jointly respond to the ongoing challenges related to initiation practices, including fatalities, injuries, and illegal initiation schools”.

Portfolio committees

The work of parliamentary portfolio committees intensifies this week, with numerous committees convening. Of note will be the briefing by the department of water and sanitation to the select committee on co-operative governance and public administration on Tuesday, focusing on “the object of South African National Water Resources Infrastructure Agency SOC Limited Amendment Bill”.

Economics

CPI (December)

Consumer inflation data for December lands on Tuesday and is likely to show price growth holding steady as the new year gets under way. Headline CPI is set to remain unchanged at about 3.6% year on year in January. Upward pressure will largely come from food inflation, driven in part by elevated meat prices as the effects of foot-and-mouth disease continue to filter through supply chains. Meat costs are expected to post double-digit increases, keeping overall food inflation firm.

However, this rise is likely to be partially offset by moderating prices across other food categories. Cereals, fruit and vegetables are benefiting from favourable summer rainfall, lower global food prices and subdued producer cost pressures. Fuel will provide an additional drag on headline inflation, with petrol prices falling roughly 3% month on month on the back of a firmer rand, more than offsetting higher Brent crude prices. Core inflation is set to remain contained at 3.3%, reflecting subdued domestic demand and cheaper imports.

Retail sales (December)

December retail sales figures arrive later in the week and are set to give more colour to the strength of festive-season consumption. Growth is set to moderate slightly, with sales forecast to rise about 2.5% year on year, down from 3.5% in November. The prior month’s print was lifted by Black Friday promotions, which pulled some spending forward, making December’s pace appear softer by comparison. Even so, the reading should still reflect resilient seasonal demand. Festive shopping patterns, alongside somewhat improved household financial conditions, are likely to have supported discretionary spending across key categories.

Retailers typically benefit from year-end bonuses, holiday travel demand and gifting-related purchases, all of which tend to bolster turnover. Analysts will watch whether momentum was broad-based or concentrated in promotion-heavy segments such as clothing, electronics and household goods. The data should offer a clearer steer on how consumers closed out 2025 amid low inflation but still-constrained real income growth.

Labour force survey (Q4 2025)

Stats SA’s fourth-quarter Labour Force Survey rounds off the week’s releases and is expected to show labour market conditions remaining broadly strained. The unemployment rate is likely to hold close to 32%, signalling limited improvement in overall job creation. Domestically oriented sectors are set to have seen some support from firmer consumer spending, easing logistical bottlenecks and a more stable electricity supply environment. However, hiring momentum is unlikely to have been uniform.

Export-focused industries may have remained cautious, adopting a wait-and-see approach to capacity expansion amid higher tariffs and soft global demand. Seasonal factors will also weigh on the quarter’s print. Meanwhile, employment within general government is expected to remain constrained by tight fiscal conditions, leaving overall employment growth lagging behind the expanding labour force.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls. 

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