The week ahead: Youth Day at 50

Tuesday marks 50 years since the youth of Soweto rose up in defiance of the apartheid government – a defining moment in the struggle against the system of minority rule – and government and civil society are set to honour the occasion with a series of events. Here’s what else is on the political and economic diary this week.

Politics

Ramaphosa’s urgent application to halt Phala Phala investigation

On Friday, President Cyril Ramaphosa brought an urgent application to halt the Phala Phala impeachment process. The court will hear the application this week, possibly as early as Tuesday. Speaker of the National Assembly Thoko Didiza and impeachment committee chair Makashule Gana both rejected Ramaphosa’s request to stop the committee’s work.

Fifty years since the 1976 Soweto uprising

Tuesday is Youth Day, and government and civil society will hold events on Monday and Tuesday to honour the 50-year anniversary of the 1976 Soweto uprising. The official government event will be at FNB Stadium on Tuesday, while events in Soweto include walking the route of the 1976 students and a series of intergenerational discussions about June 16 and the politics of today.

By-elections

Two wards in the Buffalo City metro will be contested on Wednesday – both of which the ANC won by less than 50% in the 2021 local election. In 2021, the ANC won ward 1 with 46% of the vote to the DA’s 41.3% and the EFF’s 7.7%. In the 2024 provincial election the ANC won 41.7% of the vote, the DA dropped to 32.1%, while the EFF rose to 12.1%. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) also grew to 6.5%.

In ward 10, the ANC won 49.2% of the vote in 2021, with the opposition vote safely split between the DA (16.7%), an independent candidate (15.1%) and the EFF (9.5%). In the 2024 provincial election the ANC dipped to 47.2% of the vote while the DA (17.4%), EFF (16.2%) and PA (10.2%) all grew.

The ANC will face multiple challengers on Wednesday: besides the DA, EFF and PA, the party must also fend off the UDM, the Progressive Community Movement and the One Love Alliance in both wards, plus the SACP in ward 1.

Registration weekend

The first voter registration weekend ahead of the November 4 local government election will take place on Saturday and Sunday. All voting stations across the country will be open on Saturday and Sunday, and voters will be able to check their registration status, reregister if they have moved since the last election or register for the first time. The weekend will be the first major battle in the key metros, as it marks the first opportunity for parties to achieve a differential turnout.

Economics

Consumer inflation (May 2026)

Stats SA will release May’s CPI figures on Wednesday morning. The market has had a month to digest April’s year-on-year jumps to 4% in headline inflation and 3.6% in core inflation, and the Reserve Bank raising interest rates in response.

Further increases are all but certain, and inflation numbers for May (and June) will confirm the size of the next rate hike, not its probability. If core inflation drifts too far north of 4% over the next two months, expect the Reserve Bank to bring down the hammer in July.

Retail sales (April 2026)

Stats SA will release April’s numbers on Wednesday afternoon. Any positive month-on-month growth from March’s figures would be welcomed, but expectations are for a contraction as higher fuel prices burnt through consumers’ disposable income.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls. 

_{Top image collage: Rawpixel; Currency.}