South Africa, we are in terminal trouble

Four years ago, almost to the day, I wrote a column titled “Multiple Organ Failure”, in which I suggested that South Africa was approaching a failed state.

It seems I was over-reacting to the circumstances that prevailed then, and here we are, still surviving, after a fashion. We’re a resilient bunch, us South Africans; I’d back us against any other nation, and not only on the rugby field. But I do fear that we’re closer to being forced to reset our ambitions at lower levels than we’d like to, and the hour is getting late.

It’s beyond isolated specifics now: it’s endemic, it’s systemic and it is approaching a point where the rot cannot be fixed, not even with super-human capabilities or advanced technology. We’re becoming less likely to succeed by the day. I may be wrong again – and I hope so – but the facts are hard to ignore.

Institutions are failing objective tests across a matrix of measures and their leaders are being found out. Thank goodness we still have a free press, I think. Though even there, disclosure simply doesn’t get deep enough – either because it’s not allowed to or because there isn’t sufficient knowledge to question beyond a certain level of detail. But the more you know, the more you know it’s not good.

Some more recent examples would be:

• The suspension of both the CEO and CIO of the Public Investment Corporation (which manages more than R3.6-trillion of public money), surely not done lightly or without any factual foundation;
• The Competition Commission’s failure to prove, yet keep alive for over a decade, its assertion that most South African banks had conspired to manipulate the rand;
• The escape (albeit temporary) from Madlanga commission scrutiny by simply producing, overnight, a medical certificate just as the truth (this time with consequences – unlike the Zondo commission) starts appearing;
• The disappointing revolving doors between (and within) political parties and the continued don’t-give-a-damn-what-you-think cadre deployment – across all political parties – into key positions of authority without capacity;
• The lowering of standards in basic education to produce statistics that belie quality of output in favour of increasing pass rates rather than improving the prospect of employment;
• The many, many hurdles to inward investment, and local start-up funding;
• The mountainous mismanagement at municipalities and metros – which has forced National Treasury to intervene (thankfully) and make payments directly to critical suppliers of energy, water and waste management;
• The criticism, mistrust of, and resistance to private sector participation in public sector partnerships. It should be obvious, for instance, that the country would be better served by enabling local producers to be internationally competitive through affordable input costs (like electricity) rather than focusing only on the sustainability of the utility itself (government would get its investment back through taxes on producer profits and foreign direct investment);
• An ignorance (wilful or otherwise) of fair market value in procurement processes and supply chains across all state-controlled entities and institutions; and
• The perpetual pursuit of popularity and loyalty above purpose and pragmatism.

I could go on – we all could – and it takes ages to get through the complaints before you can actually start dinner. We’ve all become experts at pointing out and even acknowledging faults, almost as if admission of guilt recuses you from consequences or effort.

Settling for less and less

There is little evidence of anything actually being done to change course. Sure, lots of good people are doing their bit, like fixing potholes here and there, or installing alternative water and electricity sources. But we’re sweeping the surface, not cleaning out the grime. We’re settling for less and less. No power isn’t news anymore and all traffic lights have become yield signs, whether they’re working or not. Laws, what laws?

Inequality is widening, racism and xenophobia are on the increase, and elitism is thriving – but aren’t these just bubbles of false security and prosperity in a sea of disgrace and squalor?

Things have to change. So what are the key elements to a solution?

• Appoint competent boards of independently-minded experts focused on the entity they oversee and guide, and not on each other and the wills of their political masters;
• Find truth and deal with it. Stop treating measurable, obvious failure with polite tolerance; fire or arrest the faulty incumbents – red cards, forever; no more suspensions, no more acting positions, no more alternative ministries or ambassadorial awards;
• Stop seeking advice from free-loading, exorbitant-fee-charging consultants and instead appoint the people who can actually do the job. Then back their strategy with funding and political support. Stop trying to control the wrong people – appoint the right people;
• Get things done, at the right price, in a reasonable time frame. The repair of parliament, for example, seems far from complete even four years after the fire, at an estimated cost of R4.6bn. Other examples abound; and
• Always test decisions against the bigger picture of South Africa’s broader interest and long-term sustainability.

We should use political power, gained from the democratic process, to appoint competent people to execute the country’s mandate. The apex of government (at all levels and in all institutions) should be occupied by the smartest people in the land. They seem unwelcome there by those who aren’t, and they may not come anyway, at least, until competitive, outcome-based remuneration structures replace the pay-less-get-less-regardless-of-performance systems of protected jobs for pals.

High reward for high performance is cheaper in the long run.

Who will we elect to do this? Who will have the courage, the integrity, the foresight and the political heft to pull it off?

I can’t see many on the field, but there are elections coming soon.

Mark Barnes is formerly an investment banker, and chair of Purple Group.

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