Get ready for the Sona snore-fest:

Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver his ninth state of the nation address this week, but if you’re looking for a more accurate read on sentiment then watch out for business confidence data, which is due for release on Wednesday.

Politics

State of the nation address

President Cyril Ramaphosa will address a joint sitting of the National Assembly and National Council of Provinces on Thursday at 19h00 SAST to officially kick off the parliamentary year. The state of the nation address (Sona) will set out the government’s agenda for the year ahead and most certainly will have a focus on local government given the looming municipal poll likely to take place in November.

Mining Indaba

The annual “Investing in Africa Mining Indaba” takes place in Cape Town from Monday until Thursday. The conference brings together government officials, ministers, mining companies and investors to discuss mining policy, regulation and opportunities. The key theme of this year’s Indaba is “Stronger Together: Progress Through Partnerships”.

By-Elections

Two by-elections will be contested on Wednesday in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape.

In Ward 13, Umzumbe, KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP will be defending the ward against MK, ANC and the NFP. In 2021, the IFP won the ward with 50.09%, narrowly beating the ANC who obtained 45.48%. In the 2024 provincial election, MK obtained 38.27% with the ANC and IFP winning 31.17% and 26.73% respectively.

In Ward 16, George, Western Cape, the DA will be defending the ward against the PA with the ANC and Truth also contesting. In July 2023, the DA won the ward off GOOD in a by-election, winning 46.05% of the vote. This was an increase from the 24.64% it achieved in 2021. The PA got 22.34% in the by-election, growing from 5.91% in 2021. In the 2024 provincial election, the DA won 52.52% in the ward with the PA obtaining 37.81%.

Official handover of Nieuwmeester Dome

The Dome, originally used for the funeral of former President Nelson Mandela in 2013, was refurbished to withstand high winds. On Friday, a joint standing committee of the National Assembly and the National Council of Provinces will be briefed on the readiness of the Dome for National Assembly sittings.

Economics

State of the nation address

With the Sona setting the backdrop, attention is likely to focus on how Ramaphosa frames progress on key economic reforms and outlines hid strategic priorities over the next three years.

The emphasis is expected to remain on implementation rather than new policy, particularly in electricity, logistics and infrastructure delivery. While unlikely to shift the needle in the near term, the address is set to reinforce reform continuity amid constrained growth and tight fiscal conditions.

Manufacturing production

The data calendar picks up on Thursday with the release of December’s manufacturing production figures. Output is likely to rise by around 1.8% YoY, reversing the 1.0% contraction recorded in November. The improvement reflects favourable base effects and gradually strengthening economic conditions toward year-end. A more stable electricity supply, improving logistics performance, firmer domestic demand and higher commodity prices are expected to have supported activity.

That said, underlying conditions remain challenging, with elevated input and operating costs continuing to weigh on margins. Export-oriented industries are also likely to face headwinds from higher US tariffs, a stronger rand and subdued global demand, limiting the pace of recovery.

Mining production

Also on Thursday, December mining production figures will provide a further read on year-end activity. Output is expected to rebound by around 4.0% YoY, following a 2.7% contraction in November. As with manufacturing, the recovery largely reflects base effects alongside improved logistics throughput, stable electricity supply and firmer precious metal prices.

Gold production figures released earlier in the day will add further colour on performance within the sector. Meanwhile, business confidence data on Wednesday will offer a broader read on sentiment heading into 2026. Despite improving production outcomes, confidence is likely to remain subdued, reflecting persistent cost pressures and an uncertain global backdrop.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls. 

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