Identity politics threatens the DA’s grip on the Western Cape

The real political war has already begun.

Gauteng will attract most attention in next year’s local government elections. But the first serious blows are landing in the Western Cape, where the Patriotic Alliance (PA) is testing the DA’s strength on home ground.

The PA, led by former jailbirds Gayton McKenzie and Kenny Kunene, has moved from being a political sideshow to a serious contender. In 2021 the party managed just one seat in George. Now it is taking wards from the DA one by one.

The party has won three straight by-elections in George this year, slashing DA support from dominant majorities to heavy defeats.

On January 21, the PA won wards 17 and 27 in George. In ward 17, party support jumped from 1% to 60%. Weeks later, on February 11, it captured ward 16 in New Dawn Park.

The momentum didn’t stop there. Last week, the acting mayor of Saldanha Bay quit the DA and joined the PA. That single move could cost the DA control of the municipality.

 “The DA will not be in charge,” McKenzie said outside of parliament, “we are taking over Saldanha. The mayor there has joined the PA and you can’t blame her. She’s joining the fight of the leading political party. The DA’s time in the Western Cape is over.”

DA disillusionment is rising

The PA believes it can win at least 15% in the Western Cape. It has marked the province as its main battleground.

For years the DA relied heavily on coloured voters to win Cape Town and the province from the ANC. But frustration has been building. Residents complain that wealthier suburbs receive better services while coloured and black townships are neglected.

Gang violence and drug dealing continue to tear through parts of the Cape Flats. Dozens of people die every month. During his state of the nation address, President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to deploy soldiers to stabilise the situation.

McKenzie has positioned his party as the political home of coloured voters who feel ignored. He has now declared openly that coloured communities across South Africa form the PA’s base.

About 5-million people identify as coloured in South Africa. More than 3-million live in the Western Cape. Nearly 600,000 live in the Northern Cape. The Eastern Cape has more than 500,000, many in Gqeberha and towns like Graaff-Reinet. Gauteng has smaller but visible communities in Eldorado Park, Westbury, Coronationville and Newclare.

The PA is tapping into this shared identity and sense of marginalisation. It presents itself as multiracial, but its message speaks directly to coloured pride and grievance. Alongside smaller parties like the National Coloured Congress, it is reshaping provincial politics.

Election numbers suggest the DA cannot afford complacency. In 2024, the ANC’s national vote fell from 57.5% (2019) to about 40.18%. In the Western Cape, the DA edged down to 55.3%, from 55.45% in 2019 – still below the 59.38% it secured in 2014.

The grip is no longer unshakeable

If identity-based mobilisation continues, the Western Cape could become vulnerable to an ANC-led coalition after 2029.

Meanwhile, the DA is simultaneously stretching its resources. Much of its energy is focused on Gauteng, where Helen Zille, the party’s most recognisable figure, is actively campaigning in Joburg. That leaves space for rivals to organise in the Cape provinces.

The PA is not limiting itself to the Western Cape. In October 2025, it won Joburg ward 29 from the ANC. In September, it secured its first ward in Kou-Kamma in the Eastern Cape.

Coalition politics adds another layer. In 2016, 27 municipalities were hung. By 2021, that number had jumped to 66. In 2026, as many as 100 councils could produce no outright winner.

Small, disciplined parties become kingmakers in that environment. If McKenzie plays carefully, the PA could secure greater influence in coalition governments. Kunene, once known as the sushi king, is already positioning himself as the party’s mayoral candidate in Joburg.

Identity politics can energise voters who feel unseen. But it can also redraw political maps in unexpected ways. In the Western Cape, that shift may finally test whether the DA’s long dominance can survive the next decade.

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