Mining houses of the ilk of Rio Tinto and Glencore are the standard-bearers of industry consolidation. So how do you consolidate the consolidators? With great difficulty, it seems.

“GlenTinto”, the proposed marriage of the industry’s most conspicuous singletons, didn’t even get past first base. Rio Tinto wanted to value the businesses on the ratio of undisturbed share prices. While that’s fine for a merger, Rio’s proposed control of both the board (by nominating the chair) and the executive (CEO), struck Glencore as more of a takeover, requiring a premium.

These are carved-in-stone principles, so it must have been pretty clear early on that “GlenTinto” was unlikely to happen.

That certainly seems to be Rio’s take, since the company opted not to extend the negotiations on February 6. From the tone of Glencore’s more fulsome press release in the wake of the deal’s breakdown, it was clearly the most frustrated.

The outcome is that Glencore CEO Gary Nagle’s vision for a scaled-up mining entity and a bigger-than-big mining sector that could compete for generalist investment interest continues to be elusive – for both him and BHP. It failed twice to buy Anglo in as many years.

Never mind, Gary. The metallurgical coal price is looking up, which will certainly pep up this year’s earnings, as appears clear in Glencore’s share price gains this year. Sell-side analysts are also quite sunny on Glencore’s plans to double copper production between now and 2035. “We see value long-term if Glencore delivers on its copper growth,” says UBS. Another short-term boost is expected from imminent government approval of Glencore’s Mara and El Pachón copper projects in Argentina.

‘Breaking down doors’

Then there’s a non-binding memorandum of understanding between Glencore and an entity called Orion CMC, under which the consortium will acquire a 40% stake in Glencore’s copper-and-cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The agreement between them imputes a $9bn enterprise value to assets – specifically Mutanda Mines and Kamoto Copper – which the market finds hard to assess, and therefore tends to undervalue.

Apart from a meaningful valuation uplift – RBC Capital Markets analyst Ben Davis ascribes a $5bn valuation to the mines – it’s also worth pointing out that the deal with Orion CMC is more than just a way to derisk its portfolio; much more. In fact, the Orion CMC deal could become an important growth driver for Glencore in a way that contrasts favourably with Rio Tinto’s offer.

That’s because the consortium, fronted by Orion Resource Partners, is also backed by the US government’s International Development Finance Corporation and ADQ, an Abu Dhabi fund. If Glencore-Rio Tinto lacked cultural synergy, then a Glencore-US government tie-up is the opposite.

For starters, the two share a certain tolerance for geopolitical risk. The Trump administration is also fond of quick decision-making and a disposition towards “breaking down doors”. Glencore, with its rich trading background, is similarly keen on breaking frontiers.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the new entity could pursue additional opportunities in the Central African copperbelt, which spans Congo and Zambia. It might even, at some point, seek outside investors and a public listing. That’s almost a bit like a new mining house in the making.

Many mining firms have hitched their cart to the Trump administration’s critical minerals push. The bite-sized, fast-track organic growth approach of an entity like Orion CMC is a far cry from the scale Nagle thinks the industry needs – but it could be an interesting antidote to Glencore’s post-Rio blues.

David McKay, a veteran mining journalist, is the editor of Miningmx.