The week ahead: All eyes on Godongwana

From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.

Politics

Medium-term budget policy statement

Finance minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday, setting out how the budget is performing as well as the fiscal and economic framework for the next year. Economic analysts expect the government to outline a slightly improved fiscal position driven by stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

The National Treasury could table a revised inflation target framework which would be a move from the current target band of 3%-6% to a revised target band of 2%-4%. There is also the potential that the Treasury could announce the adoption of a fiscal anchor.

DA ‘cabinet reshuffle’ on the cards

Reports emerged last week that DA leader John Steenhuisen has indicated to President Cyril Ramaphosa that he would like to replace minister of forestry, fisheries and the environment Dion George with DA national spokesperson Willie Aucamp. George was repeatedly offered the deputy minister of trade, industry and competition role left vacant after Andrew Whitfield was removed by Ramaphosa. He has reportedly declined what he considers to be a demotion. Indications are that the DA has asked for party MP Alexandra Abrahams to fill the role.

South Africa to consider response to Trump and US government

South Africa’s preparations for the G20 summit later this month were dealt a blow when President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform on the weekend that no US officials will attend the summit. Trump’s justification for this rests on the continued misinformation that white Afrikaners are being persecuted in South Africa. It is unclear how this latest escalation in the simmering feud between the US administration and the South African government will affect the ongoing trade negotiations. The South African government will need to respond this week as it intensifies preparations for the G20 summit.

Joint SA/AU high-level dialogue

On Tuesday, South Africa in its capacity as the current president of the G20 will co-host a high-level dialogue on “Debt Sustainability, Cost of Capital and Financing Reforms” with the AU in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The dialogue will be aimed at strengthening “Africa’s collective voice within the G20 on systemic reforms to international debt management, concessional financing, and private capital mobilisation”.

Economics

Unemployment rate

On Tuesday, the unemployment rates for quarter three will be released through the Quarterly Labour Force Survey. The rate rose to 33.2% in the second quarter from 32.9% in the first, and was the highest jobless rate since the second quarter of 2024. Unemployed individuals increased by 140,000 to a one-year high of 8.4-million. It is expected that the third quarter’s rate will be in the band of 32.7%-33.3%, but could surprise on the downside if job losses in export-oriented sectors (e.g. automotive and agricultural) are higher than estimated.

Manufacturing production

Month-on-month and year-on-year manufacturing production figures for September are expected on Tuesday. Industrial production in South Africa increased 0.4% percent in August over the previous month (month on month). The month-on-month growth is expected to increase further over the duration of the fourth quarter. Year on year, though, manufacturing output fell by -1.5% in August 2025, extending a revised -1.3% decline in the prior month. The largest negative contributions came from the basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, and metal products and machinery divisions. Month-on-month figures suggest, though, that the year-on-year figures could hit 0.5% by the end of the fourth quarter.

Gold and mining production

Gold and mining production year on year for September will be released on Thursday. Gold production in South Africa fell -3.6% year on year in August, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Mining production meanwhile fell by -0.2% over a year ago in August. This marked the first decline in mining activity since April.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls. 

_{Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.}