The week ahead: ANC takes centre stage

As the ruling party convenes for its national general council, expect new party leadership hopefuls to begin their early electoral manoeuvring. Meanwhile, retail sales and gold production figures will give some sense of how the economy is holding up. Here’s what else to look out for this week.

Politics

ANC national general council (NGC)

The ANC’s fifth NGC convenes from Monday to Thursday at the Birchwood Hotel and Conference Centre in Ekurhuleni. Though not an elective meeting, this is the party’s biggest set piece national gathering before its national elective conference in December 2027. It is there that the party will choose the next ANC president.

On the agenda for this week will be policy, the ANC’s electoral performance last year, the party’s performance in government and its overall internal organisation. With rumours of a plot against President Cyril Ramaphosa and speculation about him departing now that the G20 is over, the NGC will be watched very closely to see which future leadership hopefuls stick their heads above the parapet.

By-elections

Two by-elections will be contested on Wednesday. In Ward 109 in Ekurhuleni (Gauteng), the ANC will seek to defend its hold of the ward against the EFF, MK, ActionSA, the PAC and the All Citizens Party. In 2021, the ANC won 68.8% and the EFF placed second with 15.7% of the vote. The ANC slipped to 56.5% in the 2024 provincial election, followed by MK on 17.5%, the EFF on 13.2% and ActionSA with 1.8% of the vote.

In Ward 6, Theewaterskloof (Western Cape), the ANC defends its seat against nine opponents, including the DA, PA, EFF and MK. In 2021, the ANC won 48.9% to the DA’s 31.4%. The ANC remained steady in the 2024 provincial election, winning 49.4% of the vote. The DA trailed with 23.7%, followed by the EFF (7.4%), the PA (6.9%) and GOOD (3.7%).

Motion of no confidence in KZN premier

This week will see increased tension in the KwaZulu-Natal provincial legislature. This ahead of the scheduled vote on December 15 on a motion of no confidence against premier Thami Ntuli. The vote of National Freedom Party (NFP) MPL and social development MEC Cynthia Shinga will be critical. Currently, she differs with her party leader, Ivan Barnes, about his desire to collapse the provincial government.

The MK Party has already confirmed it will push for a secret ballot. That could make it easier for the MPLs of smaller parties to break ranks without consequence. Reports also indicate that the NFP national leadership has formally instructed Shinga to support the motion, even though she has publicly distanced herself from that position.

Economics

Retail sales

Wednesday’s retail-sales release for October, due at 1pm, will set the tone for the mid-week data run, giving a read-out on consumers’ fourth-quarter footing. October’s outcome is expected to show growth easing to about 2.5% year on year, down from September’s 3.1%. That’s largely because households delayed discretionary spending ahead of Black Friday promotions.

The softer headline should not be mistaken for a loss of underlying momentum. Easing inflation, improvement in real incomes and a gradually more accommodating rates environment continue to support household demand. Indicators show steady activity in clothing, household goods and personal-care categories. A small slowdown would suggest consumers are still cautious, while a result close to expectations would indicate that demand is settling as the festive season approaches.

Mining and gold production

Thursday’s mining and gold-production figures, scheduled for 11.30am, will provide the clearest insight into how the mining sector is holding up into year-end. Output is projected to rise by about 2.9% year on year, improving on September’s 1.2% as firmer commodity prices and slightly more reliable logistics and electricity conditions gave a lift. Gold output, which expanded 5.9% year on year in September, is also likely to remain positive, despite its characteristic volatility.

The sector still faces high extraction costs, regulatory uncertainty and problems along export routes. But small improvements in day-to-day operations are beginning to show in the print. Should mining deliver another firm performance, it would help offset softness elsewhere in the real economy and support early-fourth-quarter growth expectations.

Manufacturing production

October’s manufacturing print, which rounds off the week on Thursday, is expected to show that the sector’s recovery remains slow. Manufacturing looks to have contracted by roughly 1.7% year on year, reversing September’s marginal increase. The month-on-month figure is also likely to remain weak at about -0.5%. Heavy industry continues to struggle with high costs, weak global demand and local transport problems that still limit output.

Consumer-linked sectors are improving, but not enough to counter declines elsewhere. Another negative print would highlight the deeper problems holding manufacturing back and suggest that any recovery this quarter will remain limited, even with a more stable power supply.

Today’s edition closes out the “Week Ahead” for the year. It will return on Monday January 12.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls. 

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