There’s plenty still happening before December rolls in: here’s a look at this week’s goings-on.
Politics
By-Elections
Eight by-elections will be contested on Wednesday in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Northern Cape:
- Ward 10, Makana, Eastern Cape: The ANC will aim to defend this ward against the SACP, DA, EFF, PA and Makana Citizens Front. In 2021, the party won 67.3% to the Makana Citizen Front’s 23.1%. In the 2024 provincial election the ANC won 68.8% to the EFF’s 15.6% and the DA’s 5.6%.
- Ward 2, Kouga, Eastern Cape: The DA will aim to defend this marginal ward against the ANC, PA and COPE. The DA edged the ward in 2021 with 47.9% to the ANC’s 43.5. In the 2024 provincial election the DA won 54.8% of the vote to the ANC’s 26.5%, the PA’s 9.6% and COPE’s 0.1%.
- Ward 2, Kou-Kamma was won by the ANC in 2021 with 46.0% of the vote. The DA won 25.6% and an independent candidate won 20.0%. The ANC will defend the ward against the DA and PA. The 2024 provincial results suggest a close race: the ANC won 33.8% to the PA’s 32.3% and the DA’s 25.9%.
- Ward 90, City of Johannesburg, Gauteng: The DA will seek to hold this relatively safe ward against the ANC. In 2021, the DA won 70.2% of the vote to the ANC’s 11.4%. In the 2024 provincial election, the DA won 64.5% to the ANC’s 9.8%.
- Ward 10, Merafong City, Gauteng: The ANC will seek to hold what traditionally has been a safe ward against a crowded field that includes the DA, MK, EFF and ActionSA. In 2021, the ANC won 75.5% of the vote. The EFF placed second with 8.7%. In the 2024 provincial election, the ANC won 69.7% to the EFF’s 12.5% and MK’s 6.3%.
- Ward 17, Mandeni, KwaZulu-Natal: The ANC will seek to hold off the IFP and MK. In 2021, the party won 65.3% of the vote to the IFP’s 16.6%. In the 2024 provincial election MK won 72.6% to the ANC’s 13.4% and IFP’s 11.4%.
- Ward 7, Hantam, Northern Cape: The DA is locked in a tough contest with the ANC, VF Plus and PA in this ward which they won with 34.5% of the vote in 2021. The VF Plus came second with 29.9% and the ANC won 20.7%.
- Ward 5, Siyancuma, Northern Cape: The ANC will aim to defend this ward against the DA, EFF and PA. The ANC won the ward with 55.9% of the vote in 2021. The DA obtained 21.5% of the vote. The ANC only won 42.3% of the 2024 provincial ballot, with the DA picking up 20.9%, the PA 9,7% and the EFF 5.8%.
Parliament
Following the G20-dominated week, parliament returns with a busy plenary week in the National Assembly with sittings that will cover the 16 Days of Activism, the establishment of the Afreximbank, consideration of budgetary review and recommendation reports by Portfolio Committees, the South African Construction Action Plan, the proposed Fiscal Framework, and the recommendation for Deputy Public Protector.
It’s also another incredibly busy portfolio committee week. Key committees to watch will be SCOPA’s continued enquiry into the Road Accident Fund and the Finance Committee’s consideration of its report on the “Revised and Proposed Fiscal Framework”.
South Africa-Botswana Binational Commission
On Thursday, Cyril Ramaphosa will travel to Gaborone to take part in the outgoing Botswana – South Africa Binational Commission. Discussions will likely include subjects such as trade and investment, energy and water cooperation, transport corridors and border security.
EFF march on Constitutional Court
On Friday, the EFF will attempt to seize the narrative with its planned march to the Constitutional Court to demand “the immediate release” of judgment in its challenge to Parliament’s Section 89 Independent Panel Report on the Phala Phala matter.
Economics
Money supply & credit
Friday’s October money-supply and private-sector credit data will headline the week, offering
a clearer sense of whether the lending recovery is gaining traction after a subdued start to the year. Broad money supply (M3) is likely to record another modest MoM rise, YoY growth moving slightly higher as overall liquidity improves. Private-sector credit extension is expected to pick up from 6% YoY in September to around 6.6% in October, while loans and advances are set to quicken from 6.5% to roughly 7% YoY.
Corporate borrowing will remain the standout, likely above 10% YoY, driven partly by base effects but also by firms adjusting to a more difficult trading environment. Export-oriented industries now face higher US tariffs than many competitors and have lost duty-free access under AGOA, which expired at the end of September. Household credit remains far softer, inching only from 2.9% to about 3% YoY as weak mortgage demand continues to overshadow a promising recovery in vehicle finance and relatively consistent growth in credit cards.
Producer prices
Thursday’s October producer price index will be the key inflation read for the week, offering an early signal on pipeline cost pressures. PPI is likely to rise from 2.3% YoY in September to around 2.9% YoY, with the move largely a base-effect story rather than a sharp shift in current pricing power.
On a MoM basis, fuel and food are set to do most of the heavy lifting. Fuel prices picked up as global oil nudged higher and the rand weakened slightly, pushing the YoY fuel component back into positive territory after more than a year of deflation. In food, meat inflation remains a prominent driver – still in the mid-teens YoY amid ongoing foot-and-mouth disruptions – even as other categories stay muted thanks to solid harvests, better logistics and fewer power-supply interruptions.
Trade Surplus
October’s trade print will round off this week’s data run and show whether South Africa’s export position is holding up. The headline surplus is likely to widen from September’s R21.8bn to roughly R23.7bn, as imports again trail exports on both price and volume dynamics. Export performance remains underpinned by firm prices for key commodities, so the YoY improvement in export values is expected to owe more to pricing than to throughput.
On the other side of the ledger, import demand is being quietly supported by lower domestic inflation, slightly better real incomes, lower interest rates and a firmer rand, but not enough to close the gap. The print is set to reinforce a familiar story; a comfortable external surplus masking the vulnerability that comes with price-driven, rather than volume-driven, export strength.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.
Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.
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