The week ahead: Dada’s last dance? 

Johannesburg’s slate of mayoral candidates is in a state of flux with Dada Morero’s likely recall; Cyril may actually take questions from the floor at this week’s On The Record summit, and this week’s CPI reading may be the last low point for a while as the Iran war roils oil markets.

Politics

Human Rights Day

South Africa will mark the 66th anniversary of the Sharpeville Massacre when it commemorates Human Rights Day on Saturday. President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver the keynote address at the official Government Human Rights Day event in Kimberley. Deputy President Paul Mashatile will participate in the Alexandra Marathon. Many political parties and leaders will likely visit the Sharpeville memorial site to lay wreaths.

Recall of Dada Morero?

Johannesburg metro mayor Dada Morero’s tenure may be coming to an end, after the ANC’s regional executive committee (REC) met last Saturday and resolved to remove him from office. The REC was served with court papers challenging the regional conference held in December, where Morero’s political rival and current Johannesburg deputy mayor Loyiso Masuku was elected chair of the ANC Johannesburg region.

Eastern Cape and KZN By-Elections

Six by-elections will be contested on Wednesday. In KwaZulu-Natal, Ward 12, AbaQulusi and Wards 7 and 20 in Nongoma will be contested. The Nongoma wards are currently NFP while the AbaQulusi ward is ANC. All three wards are relatively marginal. In the Eastern Cape, Ward 7, Dr Beyers Naude, Ward Ward 32, Buffalo City and Ward 14, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela will all be contested. All three wards are ANC held with Ward 7 in Dr Beyers Naude the most marginal. The South Africa Brief will have a snapshot preview and review on these by-elections this week.

Land Claims Handovers

On Friday, Ramaphosa will officiate at the handover of title deeds to four restitution beneficiaries at a handover ceremony in Umzimkulu in KwaZulu-Natal. This follows a similar handover ceremony in Trichardt last Friday officiated by Deputy President, Paul Mashatile.

Parliament

It’s a full plenary week in Parliament with oral questions to the Deputy President scheduled for Thursday. Portfolio Committees meet throughout the week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Finance Portfolio Committee and NCOP Select Committee on Finance will meet to discuss the Committee’s report on the 2026 Budget.

News24 On the Record Summit

On Thursday and Friday, News24 will convene its “On the Record Summit’ in Cape Town which is focused on how to solve the country’s unemployment crisis. Specifically, the summit is designed at answering the question of how to create 5 million new jobs in one decade. Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver a keynote address on Thursday morning and other speakers and panelists include Hendrik du Toit, Geordin Hill-Lewis, Trevor Manuel, Neal Froneman, Busi Mavuso and Helen Zille.

Economics

CPI (February)

The week’s main data release arrives on Wednesday with February’s CPI figures. Headline inflation is likely to ease from 3.5% YoY in January to around 3.1%, largely reflecting a sharp decline in fuel prices. Petrol prices fell by 3.2% during the month as the rand strengthened against the US dollar, while Brent crude prices remained broadly stable. Together with favourable base effects, this is set to produce a near 10% YoY drop in fuel inflation (all pre-Iran war).

Food price pressures are also expected to ease slightly, with inflation likely edging down to around 4.3% from 4.4%. Lower crop prices following a healthy summer harvest appear to have offset higher meat prices linked to ongoing foot-and-mouth disease pressures. Core inflation is also likely to soften, easing from 3.4% to roughly 3.2%, supported by subdued domestic demand, a stronger rand in February and lower prices for imported goods.

Retail Sales (January)

Later on Wednesday, January retail sales data is due. Growth is expected to come in at around 2.4% YoY, a slight moderation from the 2.6% recorded in December.

Despite the slowdown, the figures are still likely to point to steady underlying momentum in household spending. Lower inflation and easier financial conditions continue to support consumer purchasing power, helping sustain demand across the retail sector.

Rate Outlook

Markets are also likely to keep a close eye on the interest-rate outlook ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s next policy decision on March 26. The rand has weakened sharply in recent weeks amid escalating tensions involving Iran, with rising oil prices adding to inflation risks.

Analysts warn that a sustained oil shock, combined with a weaker currency, could push consumer inflation above the central bank’s 3% target band. If price pressures prove persistent, the SARB may have less room to ease policy and could even be forced to consider rate hikes. Traders have already begun scaling back expectations for rate cuts this year, with some pricing in the possibility of tighter policy should inflation risks intensify.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls. 

_{Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.}

_{Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.}