From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.
Politics
Madlanga commission
The Madlanga commission of inquiry resumes this week. The inquiry was postponed after crime intelligence head Dumisani Khumalo fell ill. Evidence leaders applied on Friday for the commission’s proceedings to be held in camera on Monday, meaning the media and members of the public will not be allowed at the commission. Should this application be approved, the proceedings will be in private until further notice. Khumalo will reportedly not be testifying during this period.
G20 environment and climate sustainability working group
South Africa will host the third and final G20 environment and climate sustainability working group (ECSWG) technical and ministerial meetings this week in Cape Town. The ministerial meeting is expected to adopt the final G20 ECSWG ministerial declaration, which reflects consensus positions on global environmental governance across six priorities identified by the South African presidency of the G20 ECSWG.
Paul Mashatile visit to Turkey
Deputy President Paul Mashatile will undertake a visit to Turkey this week, where he will co-chair the inaugural binational commission between South Africa and Turkey. The purpose of the commission is “to serve as a structured platform for enhancing and co-ordinating political, economic and social co-operation” between the two countries. Mashatile will also address the fifth biennial Türkiye-Africa Business Forum. South Africa is Turkey’s biggest trading partner in Sub-Saharan Africa.
By-Elections
The ANC will seek to defend six wards on Wednesday.
Ward 15, Dr AB Xuma, Eastern Cape: the ANC will be contesting against the EFF and ATM. In 2021, the ANC won 76.3% in the ward, the EFF obtained 6% and the ATM 2.3%. The ANC maintained its strong lead (76.6% of the vote) in the 2024 provincial election, with the EFF winning 7.1% and the ATM winning 3.1%.
Ward 29, City of Joburg, Gauteng: the ANC will be contesting 11 challengers including MK, EFF, the DA and ActionSA. In 2021, the ANC won 38.8% of the vote and ActionSA placed second with 13.9% of the vote. In the 2024 provincial election, the ANC rose to 40.3% with the PA a distant second at 12.5% (EFF 11.2%, DA 11%, MK 10.1%, ActionSA 7.1%). The ANC will hope that the opposition will continue to fracture the vote.
Ward 2, Musina, Limpopo: the ANC will be contesting five parties including the DA and the EFF. In 2021, the ANC won 75.4% of the vote; the DA placed second with 11.1%. In the 2024 provincial election the ANC dropped to 68%, the DA rose to 13.6%, and the EFF and MK achieved 9.8% and 1.3% respectively. All eyes will be on the Beitbridge Primary School voting district, which contains 60% of the registered voters in the ward.
Ward 7, Ramotshere Moiloa, North West: the ANC will be contesting six challengers, including the EFF and MK. In 2021, the ANC won 57.4% of the vote. Forum for Service Delivery (F4SD) was then the primary challenger, winning 35.46% of the vote. In the 2024 provincial election the ANC won 59.5%, F4SD won 18.5% and the EFF won 6.9%. F4SD will be contesting Wednesday’s by-election under the banner of ActionSA.
Ward 4, Langeberg, Western Cape: the ANC will be contesting the DA, PA and Langeberg Independent Party. In 2021, the ANC won 36.5% of the vote to the DA’s 31.7%. In the 2024 provincial election the ANC fell to 32.3%, the PA rose to 30.6% and the DA dropped to 28.9%
Ward 6, Swellendam, Western Cape: the ANC will be contesting the DA and PA. In 2021, the ANC won 51.9% of the vote to the DA’s 34.5%. In the 2024 provincial election the ANC dropped to 38.6%, the PA rose to 30.4% and the DA dropped to 25.6%.
Economics
Retail sales (August)
On Wednesday, South Africa’s August retail sales print drops, a quick pulse-check on consumer momentum heading into Q4. Growth is likely to ease to about 3% year on year, from July’s 5.6%, largely because August is measuring up against tougher base effects and some of winter’s extra spending has faded.
Even so, the backdrop remains supportive, with rising real incomes, subdued inflation and earlier rate cuts still supporting tills, while steadier power supply has cut down trading disruptions. The breakdown will matter: food and general dealers usually set the pace, while clothing and hardware sales provide useful clues about consumer confidence. If both hold up, it signals further household resilience before the festive build-up. Even with a cooler headline number, the recovery story in retail is likely to stay intact – if gradual – into year-end.
Mining production (August)
On Tuesday, the August mining production release lands, putting logistics improvements and precious metal tailwinds to the test. Headline output is likely to slow sharply to about 0.7% year on year from 4.4% in July as temporary boosts fade and a few commodity-specific headwinds return. The industry’s obstacles remain – from clogged rail corridors to equipment backlogs – but some relief should be expected after some network improvements and a month free of load-shedding.
Bulk commodities are still vulnerable to transport snags, but stronger precious metal prices should provide a useful cushion. If the print misses expectations, it would reinforce how fragile the recovery really is and keep attention fixed on Transnet’s turnaround plans, and whether export flows and prices can build momentum into year-end.
US shut down
Throughout this week, investors will still be navigating the fallout from Washington’s federal government shutdown, which has forced the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to freeze data releases. That means no fresh reads on US inflation, retail sales or manufacturing – the kind of figures that usually anchor policy and trade decisions.
For South Africa, the timing is less than ideal. Talks with Washington over tariff relief are under way, but the lack of fresh US economic data makes it harder for American negotiators to set priorities or assess the domestic fallout of any concessions. On the market side, traders will be flying blind on inflation and growth signals, leaving the rand and commodity prices more vulnerable to sentiment swings. Gold and platinum “safe havens” could benefit if uncertainty deepens, but volatility is likely until the US data calendar restarts.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.
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