From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.
Politics
Madlanga commission
The Madlanga commission of inquiry kicks off on Wednesday. The commission’s legal team will be headed by evidence leader advocate Terry Motau and will investigate “allegations that organised criminal syndicates have infiltrated the South African Police Service and other organs of state involved in policing and public safety”. For security issues, a number of witnesses may appear in camera.
By-elections
Two by-elections will be contested on Wednesday. In Ward 64, eThekwini (KwaZulu-Natal), the DA will be defending its seat against the ANC, MK, EFF, Rise Mzansi, People’s Revolutionary Movement and the Africa Restoration Alliance. In 2021, the DA won the ward with 55.8% of the vote, with the ANC second on 24.4%. In the 2024 provincial election, the DA narrowly beat MK with 40.3% of the vote to 36.3%. The ANC trailed with 9.1%, the IFP with 6.8%, the EFF with 2.8%, and Rise with 0.5%.
In Ward 9, Ephraim Mogale (Limpopo), the ANC will be defending its seat against the EFF, MK, PAC and the South African Maintenance and Estate Beneficiaries Association. The ANC won 65.6% of the vote in 2021, with the EFF placed second at 27.2%. In the 2024 provincial vote the ANC improved to 67.7%, the EFF fell to 18.5%, and the other three parties contesting on Wednesday won 1% or less of the vote.
Education readiness for 2026 year
On Monday, higher education and training minister Buti Manamela will brief the media on the state of readiness for the 2026 academic year across the post-school education sector. The session will cover preparations at universities, TVET and CET colleges, and also launch the National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS) application window.
The briefing comes against the backdrop of recent allowance payment delays caused by a system glitch in April, as well as a R10.4bn funding shortfall and R10.6bn oversubscription crisis flagged in August, which left thousands of students struggling with registration.
Student unions are demanding accountability, citing overcrowded campuses and infrastructure shortages. The government is under pressure to show that aid will be distributed efficiently and that institutions can accommodate new enrolments, while observers will look for clarity on reforms to NSFAS’s new direct payment model.
Economics
August CPI and core CPI
On Wednesday at 10am, Stats SA will release its August CPI data, a key input for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) ahead of its rate decision. Headline inflation is likely to ease from 3.5% year on year to 3.3%, reflecting continued fuel price deflation and a firmer rand. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to dip 0.1%, unwinding July’s 0.9% spike, which had been driven by municipal tariff adjustments.
Core CPI, however, is expected to inch higher to 3.1% year on year, lifted by services inflation following higher tariffs. Food remains a pressure point, with meat prices affected by the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. While inflation risks are relatively balanced, markets will be watching closely for signs that price pressures could climb towards the SARB’s projected peak of 4.5% in late 2026.
July retail sales
Later on Wednesday, attention will shift to consumer demand as July’s retail sales figures drop at 1pm. Retail activity is expected to accelerate to 2% year-on-year growth, from 1.6% in June, supported by lower inflation, lower interest rates and easing debt-service costs that have lifted real wages. The figures will be based on a new Stats SA sample, which may create some discrepancies with forecasts; however, the broader story points to stronger discretionary spending in categories such as clothing and household goods.
Economists warn that high unemployment, power cuts and weak consumer confidence are still weighing on momentum, making it difficult for retail to drive overall growth. Investors will be watching the release to see if households can keep spending through the second half of the year, or if demand will remain patchy.
SARB interest rate decision
The week’s highlight release comes on Thursday, when the SARB’s monetary policy committee delivers its September rates decision. The repo rate is expected to stay at 7%, with the prime rate holding at 10.5%, as the central bank pauses the easing cycle it began last year.
Inflation remains within the 3%-6% target band, but policymakers are cautious not to damage credibility by cutting too soon. The tone of Thursday’s statement will be key for guidance on whether more easing could come later in 2025, or if global volatility will keep policy on hold for longer. Rand and bond markets are more likely to move on the statement’s tone than the rate call.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.
Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.
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