From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.
Politics
Agoa renewal
The US trade representative’s annual African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) eligibility hearing opens in Washington on Friday July 18. The Federal Register notice launching the review confirms South Africa will submit oral testimony alongside agriculture and auto lobbies that say US President Donald Trump’s new 30% “reciprocal” tariff breaches Agoa’s market-access spirit. In the past few weeks, the South African administration has tried to steady nerves as it tries to negotiate a trade deal before an extended deadline of August 1. An additional 10% tariff looms because of South Africa’s membership of Brics, which Trump has described as “anti-American”.
Investors are already marking down the rand on worries that the White House’s broader protectionist turn makes Agoa renewal unlikely. Roughly $3bn of goods rode Agoa preferences last year; losing them would incur some heavy duties on key products and jeopardise jobs. Any negative readouts on Friday’s hearing will harden fears that the 24-year programme is living on borrowed time.
G20 finance officials meet
South Africa’s G20 presidency hosts its headline meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on Thursday and Friday July 17-18 at The Capital Zimbali Resort in Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal. Finance minister Enoch Godongwana and South African Reserve Bank (SARB) governor Lesetja Kganyago will chair sessions on debt relief and climate finance.
President Cyril Ramaphosa opens the gathering on Thursday morning, though US treasury secretary Scott Bessent is expected to skip for the second time, instead attending the 2025 World Expo in Osaka. Bessent’s no-show further signals the strain in relations between the US and South Africa.
By-elections
Four by-elections will be contested on Wednesday July 16. The DA will be defending ward 34 in Nelson Mandela Bay Metro, the second by-election in the metro in two weeks. In Polokwane, the EFF will be defending Ward 13 in Seshego Juju Valley. The party narrowly beat the ANC by 154 votes in the 2021 municipal election. An interesting data point will be the fact that the SACP will be contesting the ward.
In AbaQulusi, KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP will be defending ward 23, another marginal ward where the vote difference between the party and the ANC in 2021 was 95 votes. MK will be contesting the ward this time and observers will be watching to see if it hurts the IFP or the ANC the most. In Ngqushwa, in the Eastern Cape, the ANC will be hoping to win ward 11, a ward won by an independent in 2021 but comfortably won on the PR vote by the party.
Nelson Mandela Day
Friday July 18 marks Nelson Mandela International Day, observed each year on Mandela’s birthday. The UN-backed initiative asks people worldwide to devote 67 minutes of service, one for each year Mandela spent in public life. This year’s theme is: “It’s still in our hands to combat poverty and inequity”.
One of the key events for Mandela Day is the Annual Mandela Day Walk & Run, set to take place on July 19 at the Bullring, the DP World Wanderers Stadium in Illovo, Joburg. This event is expected to attract 10,000 participants and will feature a 5km walk, along with 10km and 21km runs.
Economics
Mining production (May)
South Africa’s May mining output figures are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, 15 July. Mining output has fallen for six straight months and slid 7.7% year on year in April. Logistics snags and softer commodity prices suggest May will remain in the red; markets are expecting a 2.1% year-on-year dip, which would still mark a seventh consecutive contraction.
Another weak print on Tuesday would underline how rail-port constraints are choking revenue just when the Treasury is celebrating back-to-back primary surpluses.
Retail trade sales (May)
Retail trade sales data for May will drop on Wednesday July 16. Consumer spending is thought to have held up better; April sales jumped 5.1% year on year as lower inflation and May’s rate cut helped with the cost of living. SARB governor Kganyago said on July 1 that the Bank’s long-running review of its 3%-6% CPI target is “very soon” to wrap up, hinting further easing could follow if price pressures stay tame.
A smaller 2% year-on-year jump in May looks likely, reflecting the fading boost from wage back-pay. A softer figure would reinforce the picture of lopsided growth: households coping, but export sectors hurting.
This article was originally published by The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.
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