South African farmers live by a mantra of adapting to whatever comes their way, with an Afrikaans saying that, when translated, means “make a plan”. A volatile Donald Trump is no different: agribusinesses are already pivoting away from the US.

With citrus, macadamia, grape and wine exports vulnerable to policy flip-flops, growers are determined to avoid a repeat of April’s shock, when 30% tariffs rippled through the economy.

For Alex Whyte, owner of Green Farms Nut Company in Salt River, one of South Africa’s largest macadamia processors and exporters, the warning shot dented farmers’ confidence in a market that receives almost a third of its premium kernels.

“As a lot of it was out of their control, they trusted us to do the best we could and implement an alternative sales plan,” he tells Currency. “Farmers are not dramatic, they’re practical people – ’n boer maak ’n plan – and they focus on what they can control.”

By mid-November, the US had rolled back some tariffs, cutting to 10% reciprocal duties on items the US doesn’t produce in sufficient volumes, or depends on for off-season supply. This exempted key agricultural products, including oranges and citrus-based juices – as well as South African shelled macadamia nuts, which accounted for 52% of US imports.

But confidence had been shaken. Green Farms diversified shipments to Europe and Asia. While in place, the tariffs rendered South African macadamias uncompetitive against Kenya and Australia, Whyte says, and US buyers shifted supply.

Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions escalated. Trump withdrew from the G20 summit in Joburg and, at the end of the meeting of world leaders, President Cyril Ramaphosa rejected a request to hand over proceedings to junior US embassy officials. Trump retaliated by barring South Africa from next year’s gathering at his Florida resort.

$13.7bn in exports

South Africa exported a record $13.7bn in agricultural products in 2024, according to the National Agricultural Marketing Council. Within this, the US remains “an essential market”, says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber, even if its share of about 3%-4% all agricultural exports seems small at a national level.

Sihlobo notes that exporters “took advantage of a temporary tariff pause” in the second quarter of 2025 and front-loaded shipments, resulting in a 26% year-on-year increase in shipments to the US to about $161m for the three months.

However, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US fell 11% in the third quarter of 2025 from a year earlier to $144m. The composition of the products hasn’t changed much though, Sihlobo writes on his Substack blog. “It is mainly citrus, wine, fruit juices and nuts.”

Citrus: a near-miss for thousands of jobs

Citrus is South Africa’s most valuable agricultural export, with volumes more than doubling since 2017. The US accounts for roughly 5% of those exports, with shipments nearly doubling over that same period. In fact, orchards and packhouses have been built for the American market, with logistics designed to meet US plant-health rules.

Because Trump’s 30% tariffs only took effect in August 2025, outside the main season, growers avoided severe damage by increasing shipments ahead of the deadline.

Still, “a 30% tariff would add an extra $4.25 per carton to South African citrus, rendering it uncompetitive in the US”, says Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association. “Thirty-five thousand local jobs rely on the US-South Africa citrus trade.”

The exemption on oranges has been crucial. But mandarins and other varieties remain exposed, and farmers of those fruits expected to bear the brunt of the pain in April 2026.

“While the orange exemption is welcome, the US should consider extending it to mandarins and other varieties,” says Ntshabele. “Applying tariffs to mandarins risks creating price spikes, supply shortages and inflationary pressures.”

He argues the US is one market, not the market. Resolving South Africa’s World Trade Organization disputes with the EU over citrus black spot and false codling moth – measures he says cost growers almost R4bn a year – would be a far greater victory. Market access to India and China with lower tariffs would also be transformative.

Nut relief after an expensive lesson

Macadamias have become one of the country’s most profitable export crops: over the past five years, exports to the US have generated R1.2bn-R1.6bn annually, according to Macadamias South Africa.

The tariff relief came at a crucial time, says CEO Lizel Pretorius. “Considering an average kernel price was around $13/kg, that meant South Africa was approximately $2.60 more expensive than Kenya,” she says.

“Either the US customer and consumer had to absorb this difference, or the South African shipper had to discount prices to remain competitive,” Pretorius says. “The duty suppressed prices for certain grades – and this price reduction probably cost the South African industry around $10m-$15m.”

Exporters diverted stock to China, Vietnam and Europe to avoid informal layoffs, compressing margins.

Still in the firing line

Wine, table grapes, raisins and ostrich products remain under the 30% tariff regime, the effects of which are reverberating through packhouses, cold-chain operators and rural towns.

Grape and wine producers rely on premium positioning in the US, while Chile, Peru and Australia face far lower duties. Repeated tariff shocks risk eroding shelf space and undermining long-term investment.

Daneel Rossouw, head of sales for agriculture at Nedbank Commercial Banking, says South Africa should “prioritise table grapes and wine, along with all other products still impacted by the tariffs” in future talks.

The exemptions, he tells Currency, “could have a positive impact for both permanent and seasonal agricultural workers, including by increasing demand, which, in turn, increases foreign currency surplus and adds value to the South African rand”.

Strategies have shifted to front-loading shipments when tariffs loom, selling into Europe and Asia at thinner margins, investing in Middle Eastern and Indian markets, and exploring intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area, especially in processed food.

Expanding market access

Overall, the numbers suggest an industry that absorbs pressure. Agricultural exports reached $11.7bn in the first nine months of 2025 – 10% higher than a year earlier – with the third quarter alone rising to $4.7bn. The US accounted for just 3% of those exports, even though its market matters deeply to a handful of categories.

Africa, Asia and the Middle East now anchor most growth, together accounting for nearly 60% of shipments.

“South Africa should maintain its focus on improving logistical efficiency. This entails investments in port and rail infrastructure, as well as improving roads in farming towns,” Sihlobo says. He argues that the country must expand market access to key Brics countries – China, India, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – with an emphasis on “lowering import tariffs and addressing artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade”.

For a sector built on resilience, Trump’s tariff shocks have reinforced a familiar principle: markets that rest on political goodwill are fragile; markets built on geography, logistics and consumer demand endure. South Africa’s farmers know the difference – and they have already planned accordingly.