The week ahead: Life beyond the G20

We may be into the final month of the year – but there’s still plenty on the go on the political and economic calendar. Here’s a look at this week’s goings-on. 

Politics

SADC-PF plenary convenes in Durban

The Southern African Development Community parliamentary forum (SADC-PF) returns to South Africa this week for its 58^th plenary assembly, hosted in Durban from Monday to Friday. The gathering focuses on the theme “The Impact of Climate Change on Women and Youth in the SADC Region”, with delegates expected to debate legislative approaches to environmental pressures, climate-resilience strategies and the social-policy implications for vulnerable communities.

For South Africa, the plenary offers lawmakers a chance to shape regional policy alignment following the conclusion of its G20 presidency, which ended on a positive note for Pretoria after securing commitments on climate financing and development co-operation that are expected to inform the week’s deliberations.

World Aids Day

Deputy President Paul Mashatile will lead the government’s official commemoration of World Aids Day in Ga-Masemola, Limpopo today. Mashatile will be acting in his capacity as chair of the South African National Aids Council. The South African theme for this year’s commemoration is “Renewed Efforts and Sustainable Commitments to End Aids”.

Binational commission with Mozambique

President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit Mozambique on Tuesday and Wednesday for a “working visit” for the fourth South Africa-Mozambique binational commission. Ramaphosa will also attend and participate in the official launch of the Sasol Hydrocarbons Processing Integrated Infrastructure in Inhassoro Town, Inhambane Province, on Wednesday.

Parliament

The final National Assembly plenary week of the year will see a number of considerations of budgetary review and recommendation reports of portfolio committees. Friday will see the second reading debate on the Division of Revenue Amendment Bill as well as first and second reading debates on the Rates and Monetary Amounts Bill.

Economics

Current account data

South Africa’s third-quarter current account figures, scheduled for release early on Thursday morning, are likely to show a narrowing deficit, with the shortfall expected to move closer to 0.8% of GDP. This improvement is set to reflect a wider trade surplus, driven by resilient export performance even as global conditions softened slightly over the quarter. Imports grew, but at a noticeably slower pace, easing pressure on the trade balance.

However, the non-trade portion of the account, income and services flows likely continued to weigh on the overall position. Despite this drag, the expected narrowing offers a mild positive for the rand and broader stability, indicating that external balances are improving even as domestic growth shows signs of losing momentum. Markets will watch whether this print signals a sustainable trend into the fourth quarter.

New-vehicle sales

November’s new-vehicle sales print on Tuesday is set to highlight one of the more resilient corners of South Africa’s consumer economy. Sales are likely to show a robust 15.7% year-on-year increase, only marginally below October’s already-strong reading. The momentum has been underpinned by easier financial conditions following recent interest-rate cuts, which have reduced debt-servicing burdens and improved household affordability.

Stable vehicle prices and a recovery in supply chains have also supported demand, while fleet-replacement cycles in logistics remained a tailwind. This continued strength stands in contrast to broader moderation elsewhere in the economy, with recent data showing activity slowing across several sectors. The automotive sector’s performance remains a useful indicator of consumer confidence and spending capacity as the year draws to a close.

Quarter three GDP

South Africa’s third-quarter GDP figures, expected between Tuesday and Thursday, are set to confirm that the economy lost momentum following stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter. Output is likely to have expanded by roughly 0.4%, down from 0.8% in the previous quarter, as production data showed slowing. Electricity generation contracted, and mining and manufacturing both recorded softer performances amid load-shedding disruptions and weaker global demand.

Agriculture likely remained positive due to favourable weather supporting crops and horticulture, though livestock diseases continued to weigh down the sector. The main support is expected to come from services, particularly wholesale, retail and motor trade, which benefited from improved consumer conditions and solid domestic demand. Despite this cushioning effect, the overall picture for the third quarter is one of moderation, with structural constraints and industrial output tempering recovery.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls. 

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