The week ahead: Welcome back to Janu-worry

The holidays are well and truly over for most of us. Here is what to expect this week as the working world cranks itself back up.

Politics 

Matric results 

Education minister Siviwe Gwarube will announce the matric results for 2025 today, with individual students able to access their results from Tuesday. A total 903,561 candidates sat for the National Senior Certificate qualification. Despite the Information Regulator’s decision to seek permission to appeal a December ruling by the Pretoria high court, which determined that matric results could be published on public platforms using candidates’ examination numbers, the department of basic education will publish results in accredited newspapers in a pseudonymised format with candidate numbers and results.  

Back to school 

Two days after the release of matric results, all South African state schools re-open on Wednesday. Learner placement in provinces such as Gauteng and Mpumalanga remains an urgent issue heading into this week, with KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Eastern Cape facing some complexities. A key issue facing parents across the country is the rising costs of stationery, books and school uniforms, bringing the cost of living sharply into focus as 2026 kicks off in earnest. 

KZN GPU 

Following the announcement by the National Freedom Party (NFP) that it would be withdrawing from the KZN government of provincial unity (GPU), all eyes will be on what lies next for the future of governance in the province. Should social development MEC Mbali Shinga be removed as the NFP MPL following her disciplinary processes, the KZN provincial legislature will be officially hung, with 40 seats in the camp of the current GPU (IFP, ANC and DA) and 40 seats in the camp of the opposition (MK, EFF and NFP). Shinga, however, continues to defy the NFP leadership by not resigning as MEC and resisting calls to resign as the party’s MPL.  

Brics naval exercise 

Against the backdrop of an increasingly turbulent geopolitical start to 2026, the “Will for Peace 2026 drill” , a Brics naval exercise, will continue off the coast of the Western Cape this week. China is leading the exercise. The involvement of Iran and Russia in the exercise is likely to draw further criticism from the US and will also not go down well with European partners. 

Parliamentary return 

The National Assembly returns this week with a hybrid plenary on Tuesday. Included will be the consideration of budgetary review and recommendation reports of portfolio committees as well as consideration of and debates on the Adjustment Appropriations Bill. 

Economics  

Vehicle sales and consumer demand 

South Africa enters 2026 with firm signs that household spending picked up into the year-end. New vehicle sales rose 19.2% year on year in December and ended 2025 up 12.2% – one of the strongest annual performances in recent years. Passenger cars did most of the work, building from 11.6% in November to 20.3% in December, as lower interest rates and inflation, helped by cheaper imports from China and India, encouraged buyers back into showrooms. 

Light commercial vehicle sales followed suit, rising 23.7% after an equally strong November. In contrast, medium and heavy commercial sales slumped, falling 7% and 12.8% respectively, pointing to strain in logistics and mining. Exports also remained a weak point, declining 10.4% in December as passenger vehicle shipments continued to struggle.  

Credit and industry conditions 

The latest data also showed a broader strengthening in credit demand. Private sector credit extension edged higher from 7.3% in October to 7.8% in November, driven mainly by corporate borrowing as firms responded to slightly better operating conditions and fewer power disruptions. Household lending, which had been sluggish for most of 2025, is starting to pick up as lower interest rates help boost disposable incomes. 

Manufacturing, however, slipped back into negative territory. Output fell 1.1% month on month and 1% year on year in November, with seven of the 10 major subsectors reporting declines. The latest Absa PMI underscored the strain, falling to 40.5 in December, its weakest reading in almost six years, as factories cut inventories, hiring and output in the face of persistently weak demand. 

The year ahead  

Even with this mixed performance, forecasters head into 2026 with cautious optimism that the recovery could broaden if current tailwinds hold. Falling inflation, lower interest rates and gradually strengthening household finances should support demand. Stronger borrowing hints that firms may be ready to invest again, while the much larger trade surplus could add support from the export side if conditions improve. 

Much now hinges on the next phase of reforms in logistics and energy reliability. As always the outlook remains sensitive to follow-through on reforms and the political environment – including February’s budget and local government elections later in the year. For now, the early signs point to 2026 starting on a firmer footing, but the gains still need to be locked in. 

It’s a quiet week on the data front, but we’ll return next Monday with a look at a packed calendar, featuring mining production, CPI, retail sales and the January interest rate decision.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls. 

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