All eyes are on the Phala Phala saga and the fallout from the Constitutional Court ruling that the matter must go ahead to an impeachment committee. That will dominate news headlines through the week – but here’s what else you need to know.
Politics
The Phala Phala saga continues
Last Friday’s Constitutional Court ruling on the Phala Phala parliamentary process has turned up the heat on President Cyril Ramaphosa and will dominate political developments in the coming week. The court declared that the 2022 parliamentary vote, which shielded Ramaphosa from an inquiry into Phala Phala, was invalid and unconstitutional.
The court ordered parliament to refer the findings of the 2022 judicial panel to an impeachment committee – the same findings that parliament voted against in a now unconstitutional move. The EFF has also called on Ramaphosa to resign and will support any impeachment process.
The ANC’s top seven will meet today to discuss the ruling and may take it on judicial review, while parliament will start the process of constituting the impeachment committee.
Ramaphosa’s fate is unclear; the original panel report is thin on evidence, and it would take a two-thirds majority vote to remove him. Whether he stays or goes, there is a greater risk now for the stability of the government of national unity. The ANC’s 2026 election campaign has been dealt a body blow, as Ramaphosa is easily the most popular leader in the ANC.
Parliamentary calendar
It will be a week of uncovering corruption and skullduggery in parliament. On Tuesday, the standing committee on public accounts (Scopa) will hold a hearing on the Tshwane metro’s latest audit outcomes and Special Investigating Unit (SIU) investigations. On Wednesday, it will hold a similar hearing for eThekwini metro.
The SIU’s findings in Tshwane include tender and procurement irregularities in the hundreds of millions of rands around water tankers, and it is also investigating allegations of serious maladministration and corruption regarding water and sanitation services in eThekwini.
On Wednesday, the SIU will also brief the portfolio committee on land reform and rural development on its investigations in the department, and the Construction Education and Training Authority will brief the portfolio committee on higher education on allegations of irregularities at the entity.
The most closely watched committee meeting will be on Thursday. The portfolio committee on police will consider the report on the Phala Phala game farm theft matter by the Independent Police Investigative Directorate. The committee will also be briefed by the South African Police Service on the actions taken in respect of members implicated in the report.
Finally, on Friday, the standing committee on the auditor-general will be briefed by the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (DPCI) and the SIU on the processing of matters referred to the DPCI by the office of the auditor-general.
By-elections
Three by-elections will take place on Wednesday.
Ward 20 in Matlosana, in the North West, will be contested by the ANC, the EFF and the Patriotic Alliance (PA). In the 2021 local government election, the ANC won the ward with 72% of the vote, the EFF came second with 18.4%, and the Forum for Service Delivery won 4.5%. In the 2024 provincial ballot, the ANC dropped to 68.8% and the EFF to 14.5%, while the DA rose to 5.5% of the vote.
Two wards will be contested in the Northern Cape. Ward 2 in Siyathemba will be contested by the ANC, the Siyathemba Community Movement (SGB), and the dBokke-dBokke party. In 2021, the SGB won the ward with 55.3% to the ANC’s 39% (DA: 5.1%). In the 2024 provincial ballot, the ANC won 48.2% to the Northern Cape Communities Movement’s 32.6% and the DA’s 13.9%.
Ward 15 in Dawid Kruiper will be contested by the ANC, DA, PA and the Restoration SA party. In the 2021 local election the DA won the ward with 47% to the ANC’s 38.2% and the Khoisan Revolution’s 9.4%. In the 2024 provincial ballot, the DA remained steady on 47%, while the ANC dropped to 33% and the PA grew to 10.7%.
Two weeks ago, the DA accused the ANC of busing in hundreds of people from outside Ward 15 to illegally register as voters. The DA also personally named the speaker of the ZF Mgcawu district municipality, Stanley Peterson of the Khoisan Revolution, as someone who brought people in to register illegally.
Economics
Quarterly Labour Force Survey (Q1 2026)
Stats SA will release employment numbers for the first quarter of 2026 on Tuesday morning. Quarter-on-quarter numbers are historically bad in the first quarter due to the fall in seasonal/holiday employment, and official unemployment may rise above 32% from the previous quarter’s 31.4%. The number of unemployed people may also rise above 8-million.
Manufacturing production and sales (March 2026)
On Tuesday afternoon, Stats SA will release the latest manufacturing figures. The contraction in manufacturing is expected to slow down from February’s figures while still remaining negative. Last week’s unexpected jump in the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) into positive territory heralds further positive news for the sector from April onwards.
Mining production and sales (March 2026)
Stats SA will release mining production and sales on Thursday morning. February’s figures showed that output surged by 9.7% year on year on the back of high commodity prices and the base effects of a weaker month in February 2025. March’s year-on-year growth is expected to fall back to about 4%, in line with previous months’ growth.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls.
Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.
Sign up to Currency’s weekly newsletters to receive your own bulletin of weekday news and weekend treats. Register here.
