A rate hike is almost certain on Thursday, while an Africa Day stay-away, the looming Phala Phala impeachment committee and two crucial by-elections will make it a week to forget for ANC ministers.
Politics
ANC in rush to finalise list for impeachment committee
The ANC missed last Friday’s deadline to submit its list of MPs to parliament’s Phala Phala impeachment committee. Parliament speaker Thoko Didiza is expected to publish the list of committee members on Monday, and the ANC leadership will have scrambled over the weekend to agree on the nine MPs to send to the committee.
Africa Day event overshadowed by ambassador boycott
African ambassadors plan to boycott the South African government’s main Africa Day event on Monday in Pretoria. The boycott is in response to rising anti-immigrant sentiment in South Africa, recently expressed in marches and protests where African immigrants have been harassed and assaulted.
Parliamentary calendar
On Tuesday, the department of communications and digital technologies will brief the respective portfolio committee on the withdrawal of the AI policy, way forward and consequence management.
On Wednesday, the portfolio committee on defence and military veterans will host both the office of the auditor-general and representatives from the department of defence and military veterans. The department will brief the committee on irregular, fruitless and wasteful expenditure identified by the auditor-general’s office, and what consequence management is taking place.
By-elections: two ANC wards will test the party’s popularity
The ANC will defend two wards on Wednesday. In the 2021 local election the party won ward 28 in Emfuleni, Gauteng, with just 50.9%. The opposition vote was split between the EFF (16.3%), the DA (14.2%) and an independent candidate (9.3%). The ANC’s share of the 2024 provincial vote dropped to 45.9%, with the DA winning 19.3%, the EFF 13.8% and MK 11.5% of the vote.
The ANC will be defending this seat against nine other contenders, including candidates from the DA, EFF, SACP, PA and PAC. The party will hope that an opposition split of the vote will protect it even if it loses its majority.
In the North West, the party will be defending ward 2 in Mahikeng. The ANC won 57.6% of the vote in 2021, with the EFF taking 29.2%. In the 2024 provincial election, the ANC won 59% of the vote to the EFF’s 20.9%, with ActionSA (7.6%) and the DA (5.1%) scooping up the larger crumbs.
The ANC faces off against the EFF on Wednesday. The United Christian Democratic Party is also contesting, but this is essentially a head-to-head contest between the two big parties, and possibly a harder ward to hold than Emfuleni.
Economics
Producer price index (April 2026)
Stats SA will release April’s PPI numbers on Thursday morning. Producer prices increased by 2.3% year on year in March, and analysts expect a sharp rise in April due to fuel price increases. The release will not influence the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday afternoon but it may indicate how much pain is on the way for consumers in May and June.
Reserve Bank interest rate decision
Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago will announce the monetary policy committee (MPC) interest rate decision on Thursday afternoon. He is widely expected to raise the Bank’s repo rate by 25 basis points, from 6.75% to 7% – and an increase of 50 basis points is not off the cards. The prime overdraft rate will also be increased.
The forward rate agreement curve is the best predictor of future interest rates and it has priced in a 40-basis-point increase over the next two MPC meetings in May and July. Further increases are expected in September and November. While analysts disagree on the exact timing and size of future increases, the expectations of monetary tightening on Thursday are all but unanimous.
Private sector credit extension (April 2026)
The Reserve Bank will release April’s numbers on Friday morning. The growth in private credit slowed in March, from February’s multi-year high of 10.5% year on year to 8.5%. April’s growth is expected to have slowed even further, but by how much is not clear. South Africans may have increased their loan applications in anticipation of the impending interest rate increases.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls.
Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.
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