Taking South Africa’s temperature: Some sun, many clouds

Load-shedding is done, the economy is looking up and the country’s politics feel more constructive. Vrye Weekblad’s Ali van Wyk asked prominent South Africans why they’re feeling positive, and the risks they still see.
7 mins read

For the first time in years, South Africans see the light. Load-shedding has been suspended for 10 months, and politicians at least pretend they want to work together. But as much as there’s good news, it’s not all sunshine ahead. Here’s a roundup of what some prominent South Africans have to say about the state of the country.

Louis van der Watt, CEO of the Atterbury Group

Picture: Supplied.

Sun: People are starting to invest again. I’m involved at Atterbury, which is a property company, and at Fledge, which is more private equity, and I see it in both. I see property companies starting to secure land again, rezone. We haven’t taken any land positions for 10 to 15 years, and for the first time, we’re willing to do it again, because we think there’s a chance the economy will turn around reasonably, and if you don’t get in early enough, it’s too late.

We’ve started with residential developments in the Western Cape, we’re starting with industrial land here in Pretoria, we have commercial land in quite a few places. I see it with other property developers too: for the first time, they’re willing to do what we call “land banking”, where you have land ready for development. For the past 15 years, if I didn’t have a specific tenant, I wouldn’t buy a piece of land because I didn’t want to sit with that land. Now I’m willing to sit with land, because there’s an expectation that I’ll get the tenants.

It’s largely because politics has changed a bit that the economy has improved. The fact that Eskom is no longer cutting power makes a huge difference. All our retailers are doing better than a year ago, and [as they do, we’re] more willing to buy land to build shopping centres.

One of the country’s biggest citrus farmers [told me he was struggling] to get his product to the port. But now that they’re starting to privatise railways and trains, he’s willing to invest money in so-called sidings, where he can load his product onto the rail where he owns the train.

Clouds: Let’s go back 30 years to the apartheid years, where you had a bunch of companies that worked closely with the government and got lots of contracts. There are many businesses built with favours from the previous regime that are proper businesses that exist to this day.

The same thing happens today – there are many businesspeople close to the government who get many soft contracts – but none develop into sustainable businesses. Those businesspeople who move close to the government and get, let’s say, the “Broederbond contracts” are just in it for themselves. I hear about all the contracts and who won them, and then the next day you hear the guy drives three Ferraris. It’s like this all over the world, where certain people move close to governments and get contracts, but the question is what you do with it: do you build businesses, create jobs, or do you just make yourself rich?

Quinton Adams, The Shackbuilder

Picture: Supplied.

Sun: Large-scale corruption and state capture have reactivated civil society. From academics to the ordinary person on the street, people have begun to raise their voices and take action. The Covid epidemic was a demonstration of the significant role that civil society can play. Without this sector, there would certainly have been hunger uprisings due to the large-scale food shortages for people who could not work during the lockdown.

Clouds: Our politicians become entangled in the international political landscape and forget to actively address local issues such as youth unemployment. It is a ticking time bomb [as] youth unemployment causes people to turn to the criminal economy. There is no strategy to prepare the youth for employment.

Roelof Botha, economist at the Optimum Investment Group

Picture: Supplied.

Sun: The economy is preparing for a new growth phase. An impressive number of economic indicators are pushing upwards, with an increase in new jobs of nearly 300,000 during the third quarter. The main reason for optimism about achieving a growth rate of about 3% in 2025 is that interest rates have started to decline, even though it’s hopelessly slow. With inflation below 3%, the Reserve Bank has no choice but to further reduce interest rates, which will stimulate consumer spending and capital formation.

Clouds: The apparent unwillingness or inability of the government to fix the country’s municipalities, a problem that originates from cadre deployment and has led to unprecedented incompetence in local government management. Unless the government substantially improves service delivery at municipal level, through co-operation with the private sector, sociopolitical unrest will continue to threaten.

Duma Gqubule, research fellow at the Social Policy Initiative

Picture: Supplied.

Sun: When I spend time with my son Khalo, who is studying music at Wits University, and his friends, I have great hope for the future. They are so different from my generation in the way they see issues relating to race, gender, politics and society. I was so excited that the class of 2024 achieved the country’s highest ever matric pass rate of 87.3%. A record 337,158 learners received a bachelor’s pass that allows them to go to university – more than three times higher than the class of 2009.

We must take profit out of education and double the size of the tertiary education sector. South Africa had a relatively low tertiary enrolment rate of 27.2% in 2022 compared with an average of 78.8% in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.

Fanie Naudé, writer and lawyer

Picture: Brenda Vedltman.

Sun: South Africa needs a radically reimagined set of values, perhaps even a new democratic revolution that will sweep away not just the remnants of old South African conservatism, but also the brutal indifference and crass self-interest of the corrupted liberation organisation that has governed us over the past decades. And yet, in the absence of such a turnaround, the modest degree of pluralism that the formation of the government of national unity has brought gives one hope.

South Africa’s salvation, if there is one, will come from a nongoverning pool of talent and entrepreneurial spirit, a growing and demographically diverse group of South Africans whose tireless search for solutions, despite lacking political will, could ultimately be decisive.

Clouds: The rapid shift of the US towards a fascistic theocracy, governed by adult toddlers who stamp their feet and want to grab others’ toys, poses considerable threats. The wave of populism sweeping over the West isn’t sparing South Africa. Our new right wing, in the form of MK’s ethnic nationalism (with homophobia and xenophobia mixed in), is the clearest equivalent.

Conservatives routinely appear in online news forums thinking Donald Trump will restore their old South African notions of masculinity. Ironically, it’s precisely these commentators, and indeed all South Africans, whose economic interests in 2025 will be undermined by the reckless power games of their heroes, Trump and Elon Musk.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber

Picture: Supplied.

Sun: I spend my time working in agriculture and rural affairs. We had a challenging 2024 due to the mid-summer drought, from February to March, that led to a 23% decline in summer grain and oilseed harvests to 15.4Mt, as well as animal diseases. This year, we are seeing a recovery from the drought and receiving excellent rains that support agricultural production.

We are also making progress in controlling animal diseases. I am optimistic about the prospects of the South African government and private sector finally implementing the agriculture and agro-processing master plan, which could lead to job creation and growth in the sector. The South African government has 2.5-million hectares at its disposal; releasing this land this year with title deeds would be likely to help us achieve long-term growth, inclusion and job creation.

Clouds: We are an export-oriented agricultural sector. We export about half of our agricultural products, amounting to $13.2bn in 2023. The rise of protectionism worldwide and the hawkish trade policy in the US worries me. I already see EU farmers calling for increased protection. South Africa must also strive to access more markets in Brics and other regions, and fully utilise the resources of the World Trade Organisation to engage more effectively.

Carina Stander, writer, poet, journalist and artist

Picture: Supplied.

Clouds: I am concerned about the state of publishing in South Africa. When I started writing travel articles in 2004, magazines were bulky, like doorstoppers. Now, publications, publishing houses, newspapers, magazines are hit like a windscreen by a swarm of locusts on the long road through the Karoo. Who can actually afford to write in South Africa? When you have kids heading to university and you have to pay for it, it’s very difficult to justify writing for a living.

Sun: It is interesting for me to see how many other citizens from other countries are currently choosing to come and stay in South Africa. Our child’s class has about 50 children, and there are parents who come from Poland, Ireland, Russia, Moldova, a Portuguese father, a French mother, two children with German parents, and of course a bunch of South Africans. They say their children can still be kids in South Africa and they see potential for new businesses here. They say the lifestyle is wonderful.

For the pessimists who think everything is going to fall apart, I will put it bluntly. No-one we encountered in Cape Nature or SANParks, or who handled our bookings or welcomed us, was lily-white any more, but everyone was extremely professional and so warm and welcoming that I was incredibly proud that overseas tourists and South Africans could get to know this lovely side of our country. You had the feeling that this is what the country looks like when it flourishes.

I don’t want to live anywhere else. The time I wanted to semigrate because of crime is over. There was such a time, when my husband was left for dead in a brutal house burglary. I can understand why people have no hope for South Africa; I can understand the darkness that comes over someone, but right now it feels like the light is shining in the dark.

Top image: Wandile Sihlobo, Louis van der Watt and Quinton Adams

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Ali van Wyk

Ali van Wyk is content editor of Vrye Weekblad.

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