From goings-on in politics to info drops in the economic world, we’ve got you covered on what to expect this week.
Politics
Whitfield fallout
The surprise sacking of DA deputy trade, industry and competition minister Andrew Whitfield last week will continue to pile pressure on the government of national unity (GNU) this week. The DA has suspended its role in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s national dialogue process and openly debated a no-confidence motion after DA head John Steenhuisen’s 48-hour ultimatum deadline passed over the weekend.
Ramaphosa cancelled his trip to Seville this week to deal with “political developments that require close monitoring and management in the country”.
DA leaders will likely continue to press Ramaphosa for a public explanation when parliament reconvenes. Support for Budget 3.0 – which must be wrapped up by the end of July – may now be in play.
G20 working groups and Washington
From Wednesday, South Africa takes its G20 presidency on the road with two overlapping meetings: the third education working group in Durban (July 2-3) and the third empowerment of women working group in the Kruger Park (July 2-4). But Ramaphosa’s larger concern will be a US no-show.
American officials skipped last week’s G20 Sherpa meeting and, in response, South African officials plan to contact the US government early this week to secure a commitment before November’s leaders’ summit. Diplomats warn that a continuing US absence would sap political weight from any communiqués the GNU hopes to showcase. South African officials will no doubt work hard to secure even an indicative agreement before Friday’s closing press conference.
The US’s absence signals, again, that relations between the two countries remain fraught, following the meeting between the two presidents in the Oval Office last month.
By-election in Motherwell
The ANC will defend ward 57 in Motherwell in the municipal battleground that is Nelson Mandela Bay Metro. The ward is a relatively safe seat, with the party winning 59.4% in the 2021 municipal poll and an independent placing second at 18.5%. The EFF obtained 13.9%. The ANC won the 2024 provincial vote in the ward by an even bigger margin. The ANC and EFF will be contesting the by-election, together with MK, Azapo and, interestingly, Build One South Africa, which makes a rare by-election outing.
Economics
Trade balance (May)
The South African Revenue Service releases the country’s May trade balance data at 8am this morning, and the customs numbers are expected to show the trade surplus widening to roughly R26bn, up from April’s R21.3bn.
While global conditions remain tough, rebounding mineral exports – particularly buoyant gold prices – likely outpaced still-subdued imports, helped by cheaper fuel and a firm rand. Imports also continue to benefit from a more favourable domestic environment, with lower inflation, declining interest rates, and a resilient rand, all of which boost demand. A stronger print would give the Treasury a small revenue cushion ahead of Budget 3.0; the opposite would feed chatter about South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio and bond yields, which are at their lowest since 2022.
New vehicle sales
On Tuesday, at 8.30am, Naamsa’s year-on-year new vehicle sales data is expected to show a further 14.3% bump in June, following a 22.1% surge in May. This increase is largely attributed to last year’s low base and friendlier financing conditions after May’s rate cut, as well as more subdued prices overall.
Automakers, however, warn that momentum faces two headwinds: looming 25% US tariffs on South African exports and potentially contentious wage talks with industry unions. A potential deadlock over pay increases for South Africa’s automotive sector workers poses a risk to an industry that accounts for more than a fifth of the nation’s manufacturing output and 5% of GDP. Avoiding a fourth consecutive deadlock in pay talks and a potential strike by more than 100,000 workers will be key.
This article was originally published by The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next year’s municipal polls.
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