When certainty fails and risk rises, are CEOs ready?

Across boardrooms and balance sheets, one truth is becoming harder to ignore: the world in which CEOs lead is shifting faster than most leadership models can keep up.

At this year’s Davos Communications Summit, held in April, global strategists, campaign architects and ethics experts made one point alarmingly clear: volatility is no longer the exception. It is the operating context.

Geopolitical tensions are no longer distant headlines. A new Trump administration in the US has reignited global trade volatility, fuelling ideological division and market uncertainty. In Europe, the war in Ukraine continues to reshape alliances and expose energy vulnerabilities. In South Africa, civil society groups like AfriForum are engaging in more confrontational lobbying with foreign powers, creating diplomatic complexity for business. CEOs must now account for risks they didn’t initiate but may need to navigate.

Domestically, the uncertainty surrounding the government of national unity has introduced its own volatility. With a budget in doubt, unclear fiscal priorities, and an uneasy alliance shaping the national agenda, business confidence is fragile. For CEOs, this uncertainty isn’t abstract; it affects planning cycles, investment appetite and stakeholder trust.

Paul Holmes, founder of PRovoke Media, described the current environment as a “polycrisis”, a convergence of geopolitical, social, environmental and economic risks testing every aspect of leadership. In such conditions, old instincts fall short. Smooth operations and quarterly returns are no longer enough.

Instead, CEOs are expected to lead in a world where facts are contested, narratives are weaponised, and the consequences are both reputational and operational. This demands the ability to interpret global dynamics without partisan bias, understand how ideology and misinformation shape markets, align decisions with values and risk, and ensure that communications, legal and operations teams work in step, not in silos or competition.

What’s at stake here isn’t ideology. It’s the ability to lead with foresight in a system where volatility is the baseline.

Mary Beth West, a senior strategist from the US, framed the issue in terms that resonate with the C-suite: risk mitigation, stakeholder pressure and long-term value. She warned that many corporate affairs leaders have pushed politicised causes out of convenience rather than conviction, resulting in brand purpose without substance, and activism without accountability.

She also drew a sharp distinction between “what is truth” and “what is the truth of a situation”. The former is philosophical; the latter is strategic. Without the ability to separate noise from signal, leaders risk driving reputational decisions based on sentiment instead of insight, a costly error in today’s post-truth environment.

Holmes issued a clear call to action: leaders need pattern recognition, not just crisis response. That means anticipating narrative shifts, reputational threats and geopolitical shocks before they erupt. Public affairs and communications can no longer be treated as downstream functions – they are now critical to business continuity.

Boardroom dilemmas

In South Africa, this is urgent as we approach the 2025 local elections. Public trust is brittle, and disillusionment is rising. Traditional messaging tied to policy and delivery must give way to communications that are more emotionally intelligent, context-aware and responsive to shifting public sentiment.

David Richard Evans, former UK Labour strategist, illustrated how modern campaigns succeed through emotional sequencing, making people feel seen before persuading them. The same principle applies to South African executives building trust with stakeholders and communities. Today, reputation isn’t just earned through performance; it’s a strategic asset shaped by values and public perception. CEOs are increasingly asked to navigate complex questions such as, where do we stand on political repression? How do we respond to ESG backlash? Should we remain in markets where ethics are compromised?

These aren’t theoretical – they are urgent leadership tests in a more politicised, high-stakes business environment. They are boardroom dilemmas.

One of my personal takeaways from the Davos Communications Summit was the reminder that diplomacy is not always global. It’s regional. Contextual. Messy. As a South African communicator, I was struck by how often the local becomes the lens through which global risk is interpreted. For our CEOs, this means not only understanding macro-geopolitics, but staying deeply attuned to what regional dynamics signal to markets, communities and regulators alike. Thus, the core challenge is no longer communications but rather strategic clarity, that depends on CEOs embracing a new leadership model. One that moves beyond certainty towards awareness, cultivating the ability to read the room and respond with informed intent.

The coming year will test leaders in ways they have not yet imagined. From geopolitical volatility abroad to rising expectations at home, CEOs will need to lead with more than operational skill. They will need judgment, agility and the courage to act with integrity in an environment that no longer rewards neutrality.

Business is not separate from the political or social climate. In many cases, it is shaping it. It is about becoming competent stewards of influence.

The world has changed. Leadership must change with it. And the time to prepare is not when the storm arrives. It is now.

Lebo Madiba is a reputation management strategist and the managing director of PR Powerhouse. She spoke at the 2025 Davos Communications Summit, hosted by the World Communications Forum Association, in her capacity as a global communicator shaping leadership narratives in complex environments.