The week ahead: Monetary policy and Phala Phala

In your political and economic week ahead, expect inflation data, rates news, voter registration and more drama at the Madlanga commission. Oh, and Phala Phala will be back in the headlines as the high court rules on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s application to stay impeachment proceedings.

Politics

Judgment expected for Ramaphosa urgent action

The Western Cape High Court is expected to deliver its ruling on Ramaphosa’s urgent application to halt parliament’s impeachment process, which includes the work of the section 89 impeachment committee. Members of the committee appeared in court last week to oppose Ramaphosa’s application.

A full political calendar for the president

Ramaphosa will not be idly waiting for the judgment on his urgent application. On Monday afternoon he will attend a virtual hearing of the Southern African Development Community’s extra ordinary troika meeting. On Tuesday afternoon he will meet with the Public Service Commission.

Then he heads to Cape Town, where he’ll answer questions from the National Council of Provinces in parliament on Thursday afternoon before attending a Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) dinner in the evening. On Friday he will attend the ninth Sacu Summit.

Political parties prepare for final voter registration weekend

The Electoral Commission of South Africa will hold the second and final voter registration weekend on August 1 and 2. Political parties will spend this week and next week mobilising supporters and running voter awareness campaigns.

Key witnesses prepare to testify at the Madlanga commission

Evidence leaders at the Madlanga commission expressed their frustrations over the past few weeks with the last-minute delays of certain witnesses. Both Investigating Directorate Against Corruption head advocate Andrea Johnson and North West businessman Suliman Carrim are expected to appear before the commission this week. Johnson and Carrim’s earlier scheduled appearances were delayed after both claimed that they were too ill to attend.

Economics

Consumer price index / inflation (June 2026)

Stats SA will release the inflation figures for June on Wednesday morning. Year-on-year growth in the consumer price index – the official inflation rate – smashed through the Reserve Bank’s upper target of 4% to reach 4.5% in May.

June’s inflation rate is expected to remain at about the same level, but the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) will be more interested in the core inflation rate when it meets on Thursday. Core inflation grew by 3.8% year on year in May, and a significant rise in June’s growth might convince the MPC to tighten monetary policy further.

MPC decision (July 2026 meeting)

The Reserve Bank’s MPC will meet on Thursday and announce any change in the Bank’s repo rate on Thursday afternoon. The market consensus is for an increase of 25 basis points, but a larger increase has not been ruled out.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls. 

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