China’s decision to offer duty‑free access to 100% of tariff lines for goods from 53 African nations is welcome, but it’s unlikely to entirely fix the unbalanced trade relationship, say economists.
The decision, announced last week, is a “very well-timed and very well-calculated move”, says Brendon Verster, an economist at Oxford Economics Africa.
Nonetheless, it comes against a backdrop of an increasing but unbalanced trade relationship: in 2024, bilateral trade reached roughly $296bn, of which China exported $179bn to Africa, and Africa sent $117bn back. This trade is not game-changing for China, but it’s not to be sneezed at either: by comparison, total trade between China and the US last year was $650bn.
Yet China’s announcement is welcome because, unlike its earlier zero‑tariff pledge, which was limited to least developed countries, this new policy extends across the board – including middle‑income African exporters.
Verster says while this tariff elimination is unlikely to close the trade gap entirely, it could lift exports of manufactured and agri‑food goods from countries like South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt and Morocco, as Beijing targets deeper economic integration.
Geopolitically, it’s a smart strategic move, since smaller economies like Lesotho and Madagascar have been hit hard by Trump’s tariff regime. “China is capitalising on that chaos, positioning itself as a more reliable and less transactional partner,” says Verster.
The only exception in Africa is Eswatini due to its diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
The zero‑tariff declaration forms part of the Changsha Declaration, signed alongside 53 African nations during a Forum on China-Africa Co-operation meeting. The joint statement sharply criticised “unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying” – a clear jab at the actions of Trump’s administration.
This is good news, Verster says, because African exporters of manufactured and agricultural goods face tariffs on goods ranging between zero and 30%. This won’t solve everything – complex quota systems, phytosanitary roadblocks, and unreliable logistics remain obstacles to trade – but it’s an improvement.
The biggest beneficiaries will be smaller economies heavily exposed to US tariff shocks – such as Lesotho and Madagascar – as well as copper or cobalt exporters like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, whose products already flow predominantly to China.
But it will also help middle‑income players like Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria, which have the manufacturing capacity to expand further under favourable terms, he says.
To take advantage of the change, African countries will have to deal with supply chain bottlenecks that pose structural constraints: logistics, standards and inspection processes must all improve for the tariff cuts to unlock real growth, Vester says.
Soft power ‘masterstroke’
This is a “political masterstroke”, says Joshua Eisenman of the University of Notre Dame, according to The Economist magazine. Eisenman said Beijing is positioning itself as a stable, duty‑free partner in contrast to Washington’s protectionist shift. Underscoring this shift, the US’s African Growth and Opportunity Act is effectively dead, tainting Washington’s influence – just as China steps up with unconditional trade incentives.
This also suits China’s ambitions beyond trade. The country has bundled its zero‑tariff deal with loan programmes, infrastructure deals and capacity‑building support under its Belt and Road framework. This co-ordinated soft-power strategy deepens Beijing’s foothold in global value chains and the Global South’s political alignment.
The other problem is that China’s growth is faltering, Verster warns. “So this isn’t just generosity – it’s strategy: Beijing is securing supply chains while boosting its soft power.”
Which isn’t to suggest that Africa is abandoning the US – at least not yet. But the contrast in engagement models is stark. Washington’s overtly transactional posture risks alienating governments already disillusioned by aid cuts and bureaucratic spats.
Beijing, on the other hand, is offering what African leaders crave: stability, predictability and access.
Top image: Rawpixel / Currency collage.
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