The week ahead: RAF in Scopa sights

Parliament’s standing committee on public accounts (Scopa) last year launched a formal inquiry into the Road Accident Fund (RAF) to delve into mounting allegations of financial mismanagement at the fund. It revealed astounding details about alleged wrongdoing at the multibillion-rand institution (read Currency’s coverage here). Stand by for more …

Meanwhile, is Agoa a go-go? We should know this week.

Here’s what else to expect in the days ahead.

Politics

ANC national office bearers to meet in Joburg

The ANC’s national office bearers are expected to meet on Monday to discuss the situation in the City of Joburg. This follows the deferment of the latest no-confidence motion in ANC mayor Dada Morero, and the creation last week of a deputy mayor post. There are indications that the deputy mayor post may have been proposed to bring in newly elected ANC regional chair Loyiso Masuku.

Scopa RAF inquiry continues

The inquiry into the RAF by Scopa continues this week in parliament. Last week, the inquiry heard that by 2022/23, the RAF’s liabilities were forecast to exceed R600bn and that the average turnaround time to settle a claim was five years.

ANC on defence in Tuesday’s by-elections

Three by-elections will be contested on Tuesday. In Mogale City, Gauteng, the ANC will be defending ward 2 against the PAC, DA, ActionSA and MK. In the 2021 local government election, the ANC won the ward with 73.04% of the vote. The DA and PAC got 6.13% and 0.40% respectively. ActionSA and MK (not formed at that stage) did not contest the ward. The EFF won 16.06% of the vote, but is not on the ballot this Tuesday. In the 2024 provincial election, the ANC won 60.69% in the ward. MK won 11.75% of the vote. The DA, ActionSA and the PAC won 6.56%, 2.21% and 0.43% respectively.

In Cederberg, Western Cape, the ANC will be defending ward 4 against the DA, PA, CCC, Cederberg Eerste and Truth. In the 2021, the ANC won the ward with 31.40% of the vote. Cederberg Eerste, the PA and DA won 22.75%, 20.61% and 17.51% of the vote respectively. In the 2024 provincial election, the DA won 43.32% of the vote in the ward to the PA’s 28.10% and the ANC’s 23.03%. Cederberg Eerste did not contest the provincial elections.

In Langeberg, Western Cape, the ANC will be defending ward 4 against the DA, PA and Truth. The ward was contested as recently as October 2025, when the ANC held off the DA and PA, winning 47.43% of the vote to the DA’s 27.86% and the PA’s 20.92%. In the 2024 provincial election, the ANC won 32.28% of the vote to the PA’s 30.62% and DA’s 28%. In 2021, the ANC narrowly won the ward, with 36.53% of the vote to the DA’s 31.67%. The PA obtained 1.74% then.

Economics

Agoa renewal vote

South Africa’s continued access to duty-free exports under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is set to be determined as early as this week, when the US Senate moves to renew the trade pact. Agoa, which has been in place since 2000 and lapsed in September, permits thousands of products from eligible African countries to enter the US market without tariffs, but South Africa’s participation has come under increasing political scrutiny in Washington.

US trade representative Jamieson Greer has indicated openness to removing South Africa from the beneficiary list, reflecting broader criticism from President Donald Trump regarding the country’s foreign policy positions and domestic empowerment legislation.

Even so, losing Agoa status would likely do limited damage to the economy overall. Precious metals make up roughly half of exports to the US and already enter duty free under separate rules, while key agricultural products, including certain citrus exports, fall outside Agoa. The estimated R2bn a year in duty savings matters mainly to specific sectors like wine producers, though analysts say the benefits of keeping Agoa may be fairly small, given the high tariffs already in place on both sides.

January vehicle sales

January’s new-vehicle sales data, due for release on Monday, is expected to show that the strong momentum from late 2024 carried into the new year. Sales are likely to post another solid increase of 14.6% after rising more than 19% in December, supported by improved affordability and easier financial conditions following interest rate cuts that have reduced borrowing costs for households and firms alike.

Vehicle prices have remained relatively contained, encouraging replacement demand and fleet purchases across logistics and commercial sectors. The figures are set to underline that parts of the consumer economy are responding to lower rates, even as broader GDP growth remains subdued. For now, the vehicle market remains a relative bright spot in an otherwise uneven consumer recovery.

Rate-cut outlook

Markets will spend much of this week working out how long the pause in rate cuts will last after the monetary policy committee left the repo rate unchanged at 6.75% last week, following cumulative cuts of 100 basis points in 2025. The decision reflected a split vote, with two members favouring a further 25-basis-point cut, suggesting the easing debate is far from settled.

While the South African Reserve Bank sketched a relatively benign inflation outlook, its caution appears rooted in geopolitical volatility and lingering concerns over food, electricity and services prices.

The inflation backdrop continues to improve, though. The central bank lowered its inflation forecast for the next three years, now expecting inflation to sit just above 3% in 2026 and 2027, before reaching the target in about mid-2028, with risks judged as balanced. If current conditions persist – including a firmer rand, easing global food prices and an oversupplied oil market – inflation could turn down faster than previously expected. That would likely reopen space for further easing from about May, even if policymakers prefer to move gradually.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls. 

_{Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.}