The week ahead: sharp spike in inflation expected

All eyes will be on inflation figures this week, with a sharp rise expected, foreshadowing a possible rates increase next week. Here’s what else is on the cards in the days ahead.

Politics

Phala Phala impeachment committee to be finalised

Political parties have until Friday to submit names of MPs to National Assembly speaker Thoko Didiza to serve on the section 89 impeachment committee. This committee is the first of its kind in democratic South Africa.

Parliamentary calendar

It will be a pedestrian week in parliament, with debates on budget votes and various reports and bills making their way through the portfolio committees. The bills include the National Water Amendment Bill, the Electronic Communications Amendment Bill and the Division of Revenue Bill.

On Tuesday, the portfolio committee on higher education will be briefed by minister Buti Manamela on his decision two weeks ago to place the National Student Financial Aid Scheme under administration.

There will be questions to Deputy President Paul Mashatile on Thursday.

AmaBhungane challenge in the Constitutional Court

On Monday and Tuesday the amaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism will join the premier of the Western Cape and the City of Cape Town as an amicus curiae against the speaker of the National Assembly and others. AmaBhungane is challenging parliament on whether it fulfilled its constitutional obligation to ensure meaningful public participation during the drafting of the Public Procurement Act.

This challenge is the latest in a number of legal cases where various government departments are accused of not fulfilling their obligations to ensure meaningful public participation. 

South Africa hosts Sadc foreign ministers’ retreat

The department of international relations and co-operation will host a special meeting of the foreign ministers of the Southern African Development Community at Skukuza, in the Kruger National Park, from Friday to Sunday. The retreat is an opportunity for the ministers to reflect on the current geopolitical climate and its impact on the region.

Economics

Consumer price inflation (April 2026)

April’s inflation figures will be released on Wednesday morning, and market expectations are for a sharp spike in both headline and core inflation. March’s year-on-year increases were 3.1% for headline CPI and 3.2% for core inflation, well within the Reserve Bank’s targeted range.

The probability of an interest rate increase at next week’s monetary policy committee meeting will grow if inflation pushes above 4%, breaching the Bank’s inflation target. The Reserve Bank has already signalled its intention to be hawkish.

Retail sales (March 2026)

After February’s weak year-on-year growth of 1.6%, the weakest in 17 months, retail sales are expected to stabilise in March at about 1.7%. It is not clear what effect the war in Iran had on consumer sentiment in March, but any growth above 2% will be seen as a bonus before the rise in petrol prices eats into consumers’ disposable income.

This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls. 

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