March inflation numbers will start to show the impact the US’s war on Iran is having here at home, while the Electoral Commission of South Africa gets ready to showcase its preparations ahead of this year’s crucial local government elections.
Politics
Parliamentary calendar
On Tuesday, the standing committee on public accounts will have a follow-up engagement with Transnet, where irregular, fruitless and wasteful expenditure remains a concern. The Electoral Commission of South Africa will brief the portfolio committee on home affairs on its annual performance plan and budget, which will include preparations for the upcoming local government election.
On Wednesday, the department of electricity and energy will brief the respective portfolio committee on its revised strategic plan for 2025-2030, which may include more details on the just energy transition (JET). The JET is politically contentious, with certain parties opposing its implementation.
On Thursday, the Education, Training and Development Practices Sector Education and Training Authority and the auditor-general will brief the portfolio committee on higher education on R637m allocated for bursaries and skills development programmes that went missing without proper documentation.
By-elections in two Saldanha Bay wards
On Wednesday, the DA will defend two wards in Saldanha Bay, Western Cape. Ward 5 will be contested by the DA, PA, the Truth party and an independent candidate. Ward 6 will be contested by the DA, the FF+ and Truth.
The DA won ward 5 with 77.2% of the vote in the 2021 election (FF+ 8.8%, ANC 3%), and Ward 6 with 77% (FF+ 18.6%, ANC 2.2%). In the 2024 provincial election, the DA won 82.3% of the vote in Ward 5 (PA 6.1%, FF+ 3.3%) and 90.8% of the vote in Ward 6 (FF+ 4.3%, ANC 1.6%).
Coetzee and Schreiber to start co-ordination of DA cabinet caucus
Former DA CEO and party strategist Ryan Coetzee will start his new role this week overseeing the DA’s ministers in the government of national unity. His appointment was confirmed by new DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis on Saturday. Home affairs minister Leon Schreiber has been appointed alongside Coetzee and will co-ordinate the DA’s cabinet caucus.
Operation Vulindlela progress report
On Wednesday, the National Treasury and the presidency will brief the media on the Operation Vulindlela quarter four progress report. This will be the third update under the second phase of Operation Vulindlela, which expanded its focus to include local government and municipal service delivery. With seven months to go until the local government elections, any new reforms or projects will be of interest.
Economics
Consumer price index (March 2026)
The most important release of the week comes on Wednesday morning. February’s CPI increase year on year was 3%, right on the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) target. Market forecasts for March’s increase range from 3.1% to 4.1%, with the sharply weaker rand raising the risk of imported inflation.
There is an expectation of even greater pain in April as the effects of a higher oil price feed through to the petrol pumps. The SARB’s new inflation policy is in danger, with some forecasts showing inflation averaging 4.4% for 2026, well outside the Bank’s targeted range.
Last week, at an International Institute of Finance panel in Washington, SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago signalled his preference to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The first increase may be as early as May, at the next monetary policy committee meeting.
Retail sales (February 2026)
Growth in retail sales may have peaked in January with the back-to-school rush, as base effects push February’s year-on-year sales growth below January’s 4.2%. Forecasts range quite widely from 2.7% to 4%.
This article is published courtesy of The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to this year’s municipal polls.
Top image: Rawpixel/Currency collage.
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