The exchange … with the Brenthurst Foundation’s Greg Mills

It’s time to play smart with the US. With Donald Trump in power, South Africa needs to play down the differences between the two countries and turn up the volume on common interests.
3 mins read

US President Donald Trump means business – for America first. What then are the clever choices that South Africa needs to make in what is surely a new world order under Trump 2.0? Currency spoke to the head of the Brenthurst Foundation, Greg Mills.  

Greg Mills. Picture: Supplied.

What’s at stake for us under the Trump presidency? How do we play our cards right? 

Trump certainly likes to portray himself as, and is likely to be, a disruptor, so it’s hard to know how to pitch your offer when the environment is so uncertain. Given what we know, I think there are two competing tensions here: trade and investment on the one hand, and, on the other, our relationship with nascent groupings such as the Brics – and Russia and China in particular. South Africa keeps trying to align itself more closely with the interests of the “Global South”, and if you mention the word amorphous there never has been a more amorphous concept.  

So we have this tension at the heart of the US-South Africa relationship: one, we want a more radical change in the world order; Trump wants a more radical change in the world order but he wants it pretty much in the opposite direction. And then there a number of different aspects: we have a trade and investment relationship with the US which has done well out of the past decade and America has increased its stake in South Africa’s economy; it remains a very important trade partner – one of the top three – and we are beneficiaries of Agoa [the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which is set to expire later this year]. As the major industrialised economy in Sub-Saharan Africa we have a natural leadership role in that regard as well. Yet we are trying to have our cake and eat it … and trying to bake another with the Global South. 

Are we going to be forced to choose which cake we get to eat? 

Trump is pretty anti-free trade, using tariffs as a stick with which to beat his closest allies. So I would imagine in those circumstances that Agoa might well be a stick with which we are beaten.  

But let me say this: he’s a New York property guy and this is a negotiation; he comes up with an offer, you come up with an offer and you hammer it out and you cut the art of the deal somewhere in the middle. It’s not generally how international diplomacy works, but in the case of Trump it seems to work for him – [like] the progress he’s made in the Middle East after months of faffing around by Joe Biden. But he’s a conservative, so our position on things like the International Court of Justice case in the Middle East is unlikely to endear – and certainly hasn’t endeared – South Africa to influential Republicans.  

So we have these causes we’ve taken up which are antithetical to the belief to many in the Republican camp and that’s going to complicate the relationship. He is going to expect us to do things in Africa which are aligned to US interests, and if we run counter to those interests, we’re likely to be the target of American opprobrium. 

What about US foreign aid? 

They’ve suspended foreign aid for 90 days as they repurpose and try work out what’s working. It’s a fairly cumbersome bureaucracy on a good afternoon, so it’s probably going to take a lot longer. It’s a sign that it’s not business as usual – but in many parts of Africa, paradoxically, that’s going to be welcomed, because business as usual implies an elite that pretty much goes off and does its own thing, and a fairly careless international order that’s not really concerned about everyday challenges facing the average African.  

Ninety-three percent of Africans live in authoritarian circumstances; just 7% live in democracies. Perhaps that’s the most interesting question: is Trump going to be so transactional that he simply pursues naked self-interest, or will he see democracy as part of that bouquet of interests that the US holds. And if he does, South Africa’s ambiguous view about democracy promotion in Africa and supporting election processes will find us in further conflict if America takes that turn.  

How much aid do we actually get from the US? 

US aid overall to Africa is about $60bn, or 27% of global aid, so the South African total is about $700m (R12.3bn). And the Heritage Foundation in the US says it’s time to cut aid to South Africa. They say that all it does is reduce the link of accountability with African electorates – and why is the US taxpayer funding us when we’re doing things that are antithetical to their national interest? South Africa has to be very careful to not get into Trump’s sights.  

If there were three savvy things to do now as South Africa, what do you think they should be? 

1) Wind our neck in on Israel. 2) Make renewed efforts to partner the US in resolving conflicts in places like Sudan, though that’s going to be very hard for us to do. 3) Work on democracy promotion across the continent, because it’s in the interests of economies, because democracies grow faster, are wealthier, etc. Come up with a programme that aligns. So turn down the volume on issues of difference and turn up the volume where we have common interests.  

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Giulietta Talevi

A prominent voice in print and broadcast financial journalism with a sharp edge in market and company news. Former Financial Mail Money editor and BusinessDayTV anchor, Giulietta boasts an influential digital footprint that commands industry respect.

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