Here’s a roundup of the political and economic news you should watch out for in the days ahead.
Politics
National Assembly votes on the fiscal framework
On Wednesday, MPs will meet at the Cape Town International Convention Centre to vote on whether to adopt the fiscal framework and revenue proposals, the basis of “Budget 3.0” presented to parliament last month by finance minister Enoch Godongwana. Parliament’s portfolio committee on finance last week voted in favour (with the MK Party and EFF dissenting), and parliament looks set to follow the committee’s lead in a sitting likely to be a lot less dramatic than in the case of “Budget 2.0”.
On Thursday, Paul Mashatile steps up in parliament to receive questions to the deputy president. Two weeks ago, EFF tactics prevented President Cyril Ramaphosa from completing the full questions to the president session.
By-elections
The ANC will be defending wards 18 and 31 in Thembisile Hani municipality in Mpumalanga on Wednesday. The MK Party and the EFF will be the ANC’s main challengers in both wards. In the 2021 local government election, the ANC achieved solid majorities of 60.79% in ward 18 and 59.05% in ward 31, a pattern that continued in last year’s provincial election.
Economics
Manufacturing production
Tuesday sees the release of month-on-month and year-on-year manufacturing production numbers: the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by South Africa’s manufacturers. Continued weak numbers would reflect the continued drag from load-shedding and soft demand.
SACCI business confidence index
On Wednesday, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) will release its business confidence indicator, a solid gauge of business sentiment across all sectors. Year-on-year figures to date have been positive due to lowering inflation, increased tourism numbers and improvements in the automotive sector. Any decline on Wednesday may reflect concerns over the effects of the long-term budget impasse and resultant instability, as well as the global effects of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and direction.
Gold and mining production
Thursday sees year-on-year releases for gold and mining production. In respect of gold, a long-term decline in output is expected to continue. Ongoing weakness in mining production would weigh on the GDP outlook for Q2. Load-shedding and infrastructure challenges remain key concerns.
This article was originally published by The South Africa Brief, a political newsletter published on Substack which is a collaboration between Paul Berkowitz and Jonathan Moakes. It provides analysis and insight into the new, uncertain era of South African politics heralded by the 2024 general election. Including a specific focus on municipal politics, it will provide full analysis in the run-up to next municipal polls.
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